SMM Analysis On China September Primary Lead Production And October Forecast

In September 2024, national primary lead production turned to a decline, down 7.55% MoM and 7.65% YoY. From January to September 2024, cumulative primary lead production decreased by 4.5% YoY. The total capacity of surveyed enterprises in 2024 was 6.0063 million mt.

According to the SMM survey, primary lead smelters underwent concentrated maintenance in September, leading to a significant reduction in supply. For instance, large and medium-sized enterprises in Henan, Hunan, and Inner Mongolia entered maintenance in September, with durations ranging from 10 to 40 days. Most of these were delivery brand enterprises. The previous report predicted a MoM decline of about 10% in September, but the actual survey showed a decline of 7.55%. The lower-than-expected decline was mainly due to some smelters in Henan and Inner Mongolia postponing their scheduled maintenance.

Looking ahead to October, as smelters resume production, primary lead production is expected to fully recover September's decline. Smelters in Henan, Hunan, Inner Mongolia, and Guangxi, mostly large and medium-sized, are resuming production, significantly boosting output. Additionally, new capacity in Qinghai is about to be commissioned. This enterprise had been in a shutdown and new construction phase since the end of 2023, with a shutdown lasting 9 months. The new capacity is set to be commissioned in mid-October, upgrading lead ingot capacity from 10,000 mt/year to 20,000 mt/year. According to SMM forecasts, October primary lead production is expected to rise by about 7% MoM.