SMM Analysis On Overseas September Metallurgical Grade Alumina Production And October Forecast

Published: Oct 14, 2024 11:44

Source: SMM

Save

In September 2024 (30 days), overseas metallurgical grade alumina production decreased by 2.7% YoY.

In September 2024 (30 days), overseas metallurgical grade alumina production decreased by 2.7% YoY. The average operating rate of overseas alumina refineries was 78.9%, slightly up 0.1% MoM, but down 3.8% YoY. From January to September 2024, cumulative production decreased by 0.1% YoY.

By region:

Australia: Production for the month decreased by 11.5% YoY, with an average operating rate of about 78%. Alcoa's Kwinana alumina refinery was completely shut down by the end of Q2. Due to a natural gas pipeline explosion, Rio Tinto's Gladstone operations, Yarwun and QAL, reduced production to 74% and 77%, respectively. Rio Tinto stated that the cuts are expected to continue until the end of the year, and the annual production guidance was lowered by about 600,000 mt. Additionally, due to delays in environmental protection approvals and conveyor belt maintenance, South32's Worsley alumina refinery was forced to cut production, and the company lowered its FY25 (2024.7.1-2025.6.30) alumina production guidance by 6% to 3.75 million mt.

North America: Production for the month increased by 3.7% YoY. The average operating rate was 70.4%.

South America: Production for the month increased by 3.5% YoY. The average operating rate was 87.9%.

Africa: Production for the month decreased by 1.4% YoY. The average operating rate was 41.5%. RUSAL's bauxite-alumina complex Friguia had a capacity utilisation rate of only 40% due to reduced bauxite production.

India: Production for the month increased by 1.8% YoY. Vedanta's Lanjigarh plant, due to a shortage of bauxite supply, operated at an annual capacity of only about 2 million mt, even though the total capacity was increased to 3.5 million mt, production was lower-than-expected. SMM expects that after Vedanta's new bauxite mine starts production in 2025, alumina production will gradually increase, and the plant plans to raise total capacity to 5 million mt by the end of 2025.

Indonesia: Since the ban on bauxite exports in June 2023, Indonesia's alumina production capacity has rapidly increased. In September, Indonesia's metallurgical grade alumina production rose by 12.8% YoY. The Mempawah SGAR alumina refinery, with a capacity of 1 million mt, successfully commenced operations and is expected to reach full capacity by February 2025.

Russia: Production for the month increased by 0.6% YoY. The average operating rate was about 88.3%.

Europe (excluding Russia): Production for the month increased by 1.1% YoY. The average operating rate was about 50.9%.

Other Asian regions excluding India, Indonesia, and China: Production for the month was 656,000 mt, down 5.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 87.4%.

October forecast: According to SMM statistics, in October 2024 (31 days), overseas metallurgical grade alumina total production is expected to decrease by 2.7% YoY. The average operating rate is expected to be about 78.6%, slightly down 0.3% MoM, and down 4.3% YoY.

Output

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

5 hours ago

Vietnam Seeks Fuel Support as Diesel, Petrol Prices Surge Amid Global Oil Crisis

[SMM Aluminum Express News] Diesel prices in Vietnam have surged over 105% since late February, rising from 19,270 dong to 39,660 dong (US$1.50) per litre, while 95-octane petrol climbed nearly 68% to 33,840 dong following the outbreak of conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. Soaring global oil prices have triggered supply concerns, prompting Vietnam to seek fuel support from Qatar, Kuwait, Algeria, and Japan, while also signing a new oil and gas cooperation deal with Russia.

5 hours ago

6 hours ago

Geopolitical Disruptions and a Stronger Dollar Combined to Keep Aluminum Prices Volatile Under Pressure [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary]

[Geopolitical Disruptions Coupled With a Stronger US Dollar Put Aluminum Prices Under Pressure and Cause Volatility] Continued destocking in LME inventory provided bottom support for LME aluminum, but amid tightening capital liquidity and profit-taking by bulls, upward momentum was insufficient, and the backwardation structure weakened somewhat. China’s social inventory rose to a high for the same period in nearly five years, and the inventory buildup cycle has yet to end, with high inventory and weak spot fundamentals jointly suppressing upward momentum. The divergence between domestic and overseas drivers continued, the SHFE/LME price ratio kept weakening, and prices were mainly under pressure in the short term.

6 hours ago

Futures Rebound Drove Quote Increases, While Weak Transactions Capped Gains [SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment]

[SMM Cast Aluminum Alloy Morning Comment: Futures Rebound Drove Quotation Increases, While Weak Transactions Capped Gains] Spot side, yesterday the secondary aluminum alloy market was lifted by the futures rebound, with quotations edging up and mainstream gains at 100 yuan/mt. Some enterprises raised prices in line with the trend to recover earlier losses, and market sentiment improved slightly from the previous period. However, transactions remained weak, with downstream buyers mainly purchasing as needed and showing limited acceptance of high prices, constraining upside room for prices. In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound, and further gains will still require substantive improvement on the demand side.

6 hours ago