SMM Analysis On Overseas September Metallurgical Grade Alumina Production And October Forecast

In September 2024 (30 days), overseas metallurgical grade alumina production decreased by 2.7% YoY. The average operating rate of overseas alumina refineries was 78.9%, slightly up 0.1% MoM, but down 3.8% YoY. From January to September 2024, cumulative production decreased by 0.1% YoY.

By region:

Australia: Production for the month decreased by 11.5% YoY, with an average operating rate of about 78%. Alcoa's Kwinana alumina refinery was completely shut down by the end of Q2. Due to a natural gas pipeline explosion, Rio Tinto's Gladstone operations, Yarwun and QAL, reduced production to 74% and 77%, respectively. Rio Tinto stated that the cuts are expected to continue until the end of the year, and the annual production guidance was lowered by about 600,000 mt. Additionally, due to delays in environmental protection approvals and conveyor belt maintenance, South32's Worsley alumina refinery was forced to cut production, and the company lowered its FY25 (2024.7.1-2025.6.30) alumina production guidance by 6% to 3.75 million mt.

North America: Production for the month increased by 3.7% YoY. The average operating rate was 70.4%.

South America: Production for the month increased by 3.5% YoY. The average operating rate was 87.9%.

Africa: Production for the month decreased by 1.4% YoY. The average operating rate was 41.5%. RUSAL's bauxite-alumina complex Friguia had a capacity utilisation rate of only 40% due to reduced bauxite production.

India: Production for the month increased by 1.8% YoY. Vedanta's Lanjigarh plant, due to a shortage of bauxite supply, operated at an annual capacity of only about 2 million mt, even though the total capacity was increased to 3.5 million mt, production was lower-than-expected. SMM expects that after Vedanta's new bauxite mine starts production in 2025, alumina production will gradually increase, and the plant plans to raise total capacity to 5 million mt by the end of 2025.

Indonesia: Since the ban on bauxite exports in June 2023, Indonesia's alumina production capacity has rapidly increased. In September, Indonesia's metallurgical grade alumina production rose by 12.8% YoY. The Mempawah SGAR alumina refinery, with a capacity of 1 million mt, successfully commenced operations and is expected to reach full capacity by February 2025.

Russia: Production for the month increased by 0.6% YoY. The average operating rate was about 88.3%.

Europe (excluding Russia): Production for the month increased by 1.1% YoY. The average operating rate was about 50.9%.

Other Asian regions excluding India, Indonesia, and China: Production for the month was 656,000 mt, down 5.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 87.4%.

October forecast: According to SMM statistics, in October 2024 (31 days), overseas metallurgical grade alumina total production is expected to decrease by 2.7% YoY. The average operating rate is expected to be about 78.6%, slightly down 0.3% MoM, and down 4.3% YoY.