SMM Analysis On Overseas September Aluminum Production And October Forecast

According to SMM statistics, in September 2024 (30 days), the total overseas aluminum production slightly decreased by 0.1% YoY. As of September 2024, cumulative overseas aluminum production increased by 1.1% YoY. The average overseas operating rate was 88%, down 0.2% MoM, up 0.7% YoY.

By region:

North America: September total production decreased by 3.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 83.1%. The New Madrid aluminum smelter in the US announced a shutdown at the beginning of 2024, reducing annual aluminum production by about 147,000 mt; however, Alcoa's Warrick aluminum smelter announced the restart of a 54,000 mt production line early last year, with the current operating rate at about 75%.

South America: September total production increased by 5.0% YoY, with an average operating rate of 67.7%. The increase was due to the restart of the Alumar plant. Alcoa holds a 60% stake, and South 32 holds 40%. It announced a restart in April 2022, with the operating rate recovering to about 70% in September.

Russia: September total production increased by 2.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 95.3%. The increase came from the restart of the Taishet aluminum smelter. The plant announced a restart in early 2022, but progress was slow. In September, the total production was about 21,000 mt, with the operating rate recovering to about 64%.

Europe (excluding Russia): September total production increased by 2.9% YoY, with an average operating rate of 73.8%. The increase mainly came from the restart of Trimet's three plants in Germany. Trimet announced a restart in April 2024, expected to reach full production by mid-2025. According to SMM estimates, the operating rate of the three plants recovered to about 63% in September.

Africa: September total production increased by 2.7% YoY, with an average operating rate of about 84.9%.

Oceania: September total production decreased by 5.5% YoY, with an average operating rate of about 84.5%, down 0.2% MoM, down 4.7% YoY. The main reason was the Tiwai Point aluminum smelter in New Zealand reducing power consumption by a total of 205 MW in July and August to alleviate the energy crisis of the New Zealand State Grid. Currently, Tiwai Point's annual capacity is about 345,000 mt, and the two power reductions are expected to reduce aluminum production by about 125,000 mt.

Middle East: September total production slightly decreased by 1.5% YoY, with an average operating rate of 102.2%.

India: September total production was about 348,000 mt, up 0.7% YoY. The average operating rate was 100.2%.

Other Asian regions excluding China, India, and the Middle East: September total production decreased by 1.7% MoM, with an average operating rate of 76.3%, down 3.8 MoM. The decrease was due to an explosion at Press Metal's Samalaju plant in September, affecting about 9% of total aluminum capacity, specifically 100 out of 300 electrolytic cells in the plant's third phase. This incident is expected to reduce Press Metal's annual aluminum production in 2024 by about 3%. The repair of the damaged facilities is expected to take about four months, after which production will gradually recover.

October forecast: According to SMM statistics, in October 2024 (31 days), overseas aluminum production is expected to remain flat YoY, with an average overseas operating rate of 88%, down 0.2% MoM, up 0.7% YoY.