SMM Analysis On China September Silver Production And October Forecast

In September, SMM data showed production of 1# silver increased MoM and also showed a YoY increase. Fourteen companies reported increased silver production in September due to: 1) resumption after market maintenance, 2) production plan requirements, 3) increased silver content in ore, and 4) a boost in overall silver prices compared to August, which slightly increased production enthusiasm.

Eleven companies reported decreased silver production in September, but the reduction was minimal compared to the previous month. The decrease was mainly due to reduced silver content in ore, with some companies adjusting production according to their plans.

After the release of this week's Thursday meeting minutes, market predictions for aggressive interest rate cuts decreased, putting pressure on prices. However, due to the inherent environment of interest rate cuts, the decline in silver prices was limited. It is expected that prices will decrease in October before gaining momentum. Entering the fourth quarter, the market will focus on clearing inventory to recover funds and complete annual plans, so a slight decrease in silver production is expected in October.