Post-National Day, aluminum ingot inventory build-up was less than expected, with a downward trend expected within the month

SMM, Oct 12: On October 10, 2024, SMM reported domestic aluminum ingot social inventory at 677,000 mt, with domestic available aluminum inventory at 551,000 mt, an increase of only 19,000 mt from pre-holiday (last Monday), significantly lower than pre-holiday expectations, with a mid-week destocking of 7,000 mt. The "September-October peak season" traditional peak season saw domestic aluminum ingot inventory perform unexpectedly well, providing strong support for post-holiday aluminum prices. Overall, why was the holiday aluminum product social inventory build-up the lowest in five years? 1. Arrival gaps, with transportation issues in Xinjiang being the main reason for the significantly lower-than-expected post-holiday inventory build-up. 2. The proportion of aluminum liquid increased, casting ingot production decreased, and the 7-day holiday was shorter compared to last year's double holiday, reducing aluminum ingot supply pressure since September. 3. Demand side continued strong performance, with the import window remaining closed, reducing available market sources, and many aluminum products continued direct delivery to downstream via road transport during the National Day holiday. Throughout the month, under the "October peak season" traditional peak season background, domestic aluminum ingot inventory is expected to continue declining, with SMM expecting domestic aluminum ingot inventory to range around 650,000-750,000 mt in the first half of October, and optimistically, domestic aluminum ingot inventory may decrease to around 600,000 mt by the end of October.