[SMM Tin Lunch Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs, Awaiting Breakthrough; LME Tin Pressured by Supply Recovery Expectations] Today (July 2, 2025), the most-traded SHFE tin contract SN2508 exhibited a pattern of fluctuating at highs: It opened at 270,600 yuan/mt, slightly higher than yesterday's settlement price (269,840 yuan/mt). The intraday fluctuation range was 267,800–271,700 yuan/mt, and it closed at 268,510 yuan/mt at noon, up 0.44%. Open interest increased to 31,900 lots, reflecting intensified tug-of-war between longs and shorts at the 270,000 yuan/mt threshold, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market.

Downstream enterprises are adopting a wait-and-see attitude towards current prices, with SHFE tin prices pulling back slightly [SMM Tin Morning Briefing]. Macro: (1) The Jinan Municipal Bureau of Commerce has issued an announcement on the first round of automobile consumption subsidy activities for the second half of 2025 in Jinan. From 0:00 on July 1 to 24:00 on July 31, individuals and enterprises (units) purchasing new non-commercial passenger vehicles from participating automakers in Jinan can apply for automobile consumption subsidy packages of up to 8,500 yuan, with no restrictions on household registration or license plate registration areas. The total subsidy amount for this activity is 12 million yuan. (Bullish ★) (2) SAIC Group's production and sales bulletin shows that in June, the group sold 365,000 vehicles, up 21.6% YoY. From January to June, the group sold 2.053 million vehicles in wholesale, up 12.4% YoY. Since the beginning of this year, SAIC Group has achieved six consecutive months of YoY growth in monthly sales, with cumulative terminal retail deliveries reaching 2.207 million vehicles. (Bullish ★) (3) The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has released the operating conditions of the Internet and related services industry from January to May 2025. From January to May, Internet and related service enterprises above designated size (referred to as "Internet enterprises") achieved Internet business revenue of 773.5 billion yuan, up 0.9% YoY. From January to May, Internet enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 69.2 billion yuan, down 2.2% YoY. (Bullish ★)

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: The Weak Supply and Demand Pattern Persists, SHFE Tin Maintains Fluctuating Trend Awaiting Non-Farm Payrolls Guidance] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Opened at 267,800 yuan/mt, maintained a fluctuating trend during the day, and surged sharply in the closing session to close at 269,840 yuan/mt (up 0.63% from the previous day), with an intraday range of 266,160-269,840 yuan/mt. Trading volume: 70,070 lots (down 35.6% from the previous day), open interest: 31,494 lots (a slight increase of 10 lots).

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Pulls Back from Highs, Tight LME Tin Inventory Supports Cross-Market Price Spread] On July 1, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin 2508 contract was in the doldrums: it opened at 267,800 yuan/mt, 340 yuan lower than the settlement price of the previous trading day. The intraday fluctuation range remained rangebound between 267,900 yuan/mt and 266,100 yuan/mt. It closed at 266,590 yuan/mt, down 1,550 yuan, or 0.58%. Trading and open interest were sluggish, with strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. The open interest of the most-traded contract decreased by 1,610 lots.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that there would be a flurry of trade agreement signings. SHFE tin prices remained in the doldrums [SMM Tin Morning Brief]. Macro: (1) US Treasury Secretary Bessent: In the final week before the July 9 deadline, there would be a wave of trade agreement signings. (2) On the morning of June 30, 52 NEV units slowly rolled out of the export supervision warehouse at Nansha Port, boarding the "Sui Gang Auto 01" ro-ro ship and heading for the Hong Kong region. This marked the smooth opening of the "Sui Gang Auto Export Express" in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, making the export of domestically produced NEVs to the Hong Kong region more efficient and convenient. According to existing Hong Kong laws, imported vehicles in Hong Kong must undergo customs declaration and registration procedures after entering the region. The government departments of Guangzhou and Hong Kong have continued to deepen the alignment of rules and mechanisms between the two cities, innovatively introducing the "Sui Gang Auto Export Express" cooperation model. (Bullish ★) (3) The new generation of domestically produced general-purpose processor, Loongson 3C6000, was recently released. The breakthrough of the "China Chip" represents the pulse of accelerating the realization of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement. This homegrown CPU, developed based on the domestically independent instruction set LoongArch, features high performance, high reliability, and high security, meeting the computational needs of various scenarios such as general computing, intelligent computing, storage, industrial control, and workstations. (Bullish ★)