[SMM Analysis] In September 2024, the production of ternary cathode materials decreased by 9% MoM as demand weakened.

In September 2024, China's ternary cathode materials production decreased 7% MoM, up 3% YoY, with an overall operating rate of 40%, lower than in August. Overseas ternary cathode materials production decreased 10% MoM from August. In terms of series proportion, in September, 5-series ternary materials accounted for 24%, 6-series for 32%, and 8-series for 37%. Compared to the previous month, the 6-series maintained a significant increase, while the 8-series high-nickel proportion showed a noticeable decline.

Market structure, Ronbay, Ruixiang, and Bangpu occupied the top three in industry production, with CR3 at 48%, CR5 at 60%, and CR10 at 80%, indicating a further increase in market concentration compared to August. Demand side, the current demand for ternary cathode materials remains low. On one hand, overseas NEV sales continue to decline, and on the other, the domestic market is increasingly occupied by LFP. In September, ternary battery cell production increased 2% MoM, but the increase was lower-than-expected. The stocking pace of small power and digital 3C manufacturers slowed, reducing demand for ternary cathodes. In October, ternary materials production is expected to continue its downward trend, with a projected decrease of 4%.