Solid support from supply-demand fundamentals and cost side; macro expectations are loose; aluminum prices fluctuate upward [SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Oct 11]

SMM, Oct 11: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2411 contract opened at 20,670 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,775 yuan/mt and a low of 20,630 yuan/mt, closing at 20,695 yuan/mt, up 205 yuan/mt, an increase of 1.0%. Yesterday, LME aluminum opened at $2,545/mt, with a high of $2,595/mt and a low of $2,539/mt, closing at $2,591/mt, up $46/mt, an increase of 1.81%.

Summary: Macro side, the US September CPI data exceeded expectations, enhancing the outlook for a soft landing of the US economy. Meanwhile, the domestic market awaits the fiscal conference on Saturday. Fundamentally, the expectations for production cuts in Yunnan for the fourth quarter has decreased, along with the release of some new and resumed capacity, leading to continued growth in the domestic aluminum market supply side. Cost side, the spot alumina market remains in tight balance, making it difficult for domestic aluminum costs to decline. Demand side, October is a minor peak season for downstream aluminum processing, with overall stable industry operations, and future attention is needed on order changes. Overall, the aluminum market's supply-demand mismatch is not prominent, and with rising costs, short-term fluctuations are expected to remain upward. Future attention should focus on domestic consumption and changes in international macro sentiment.