SHFE lead outperformed LME lead; downstream enterprises mostly restocked as needed after the holiday [SMM Lead Morning Comment]

Overnight, LME lead opened at $2,151/mt, briefly touched a high of $2,156/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of $2,085/mt, and slightly rebounded to close at $2,106/mt, down $47/mt, a decrease of 2.18%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2411 contract opened at 16,825 yuan/mt, briefly touched a high of 16,945 yuan/mt, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,740 yuan/mt, later rebounded above the daily moving average, and finally closed at 16,900 yuan/mt, down 65 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.38%.

Macro side, concerns over geopolitical tensions boosted market risk aversion sentiment, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate upward, putting pressure on LME base metals. On October 8, the State Council Information Office announced a series of incremental policies to continuously boost domestic confidence and market consumption. Fundamentals side, after the National Day holiday, lead industry chain enterprises resumed normal production, but the initial post-holiday trading day saw SHFE lead jump initially and then pull back, leading downstream enterprises to adopt a wait-and-see attitude. Entering October, the delivery of the SHFE lead 2410 contract is on the agenda, and holders have begun transferring lead ingots to delivery warehouses, causing social inventory of lead ingots to rise. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is recovering slowly, but with the resumption of production and new capacity from lead smelters in October, along with pre-delivery inventory transfers, the increase in social inventory of lead ingots may be difficult to reverse.