China’s vehicle inventory alert index in Sept. 2024 dips both YoY, MoM

Published: Sep 30, 2024 15:45

Source: gasgoo

Save

China's Vehicle Inventory Alert Index for September stood at 54.0%, marking a year-on-year decrease of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month drop of 2.2 percentage points.

Shanghai (Gasgoo)- On September 30, 2024, the China Automobile Dealers Association ("CADA") released the latest "Vehicle Inventory Alert Index" (VIA). The report shows that the index for September stood at 54.0%, marking a year-on-year decrease of 3.8 percentage points and a month-on-month drop of 2.2 percentage points.

Despite the decline, the index remains above the boom-bust threshold, indicating that the automotive circulation sector continues to see sustained improvement.

In China, September is traditionally a high season for the automotive market, with the release of new models driving sales, the launch of autumn auto shows, and the surge in road trips during the National Day holiday. These factors have bolstered vehicle sales. Additionally, policies aimed at scrapping old vehicles and encouraging trade-ins have gradually revitalized the market, with significant impact. According to the survey by the CADA, 35.1% of dealers report seeing notable results from these policies, a substantial increase from previous months. However, 55.2% of dealers still believe the impact remains moderate. It is projected that total retail sales of passenger vehicles in September will reach around 2.1 million units in China, representing both year-on-year and month-on-month growth, said the association.

The CADA commented that the intense competition in the market has kept vehicle prices low, putting pressure on dealers’ profit margins. Furthermore, some financial institutions have raised the risk level for dealers, leading to loan reductions and even suspensions, which has somewhat restricted the full release of demand during the "Golden September, Silver October" period. The survey also indicates that 60.4% of dealer groups reported sales below expectations for this peak season, while 36.4% stated sales were roughly in line with expectations.

Looking at the indices by brand type, in September, the VIAs for luxury & imported brands, joint-venture brands, and China's self-owned brands saw month-on-month decreases of 1.7, 2.9, and 1.7 percentage points, reaching 57.6%, 53.5% and 50.1%, respectively.

The association added that looking ahead to October, the car scrappage and trade-in policies are expected to continue their steady progress, along with the boost from the Golden Week auto shows, self-driving tour trends, and dealers' year-end push. Market demand is expected to remain robust, with October's sales forecasted to be largely on par with those of September.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

6 hours ago

[Auto Conference], with Co-Title Sponsorship from Hongjin New Materials, Invites You to the 2026 SMM (8th) Automotive Supply Chain Conference

6 hours ago

Aug 13, 2026 17:36

[Cobalt] Cobalt Powder Weekly Review

The cobalt powder market still showed no improvement this week, with both buyers and sellers lacking willingness to take the initiative and actual transactions remaining sluggish. Although producer offers still held in the range of 430,000-450,000 yuan/mt, the center of actual deals gradually shifted toward the low end, with some transactions dipping to 420,000-430,000 yuan/mt and high-priced material clearly lacking acceptance. Pressure in the trading segment increased, as low-priced offers appeared frequently and continuously pulled down market psychological price levels. Downstream, end-user orders at cemented carbide enterprises were weak, raw material consumption cycles lengthened, procurement was mainly limited to cargo pick-up under long-term contracts, and spot restocking was minimal. Weaker cobalt carbonate prices further weakened cost support. Overall market sentiment was bearish, and cobalt powder prices may continue to weaken and hit bottom in the short term.

Aug 13, 2026 17:36

Aug 13, 2026 17:35

[Cobalt] Cobalt Sulphate Weekly Review

This week, the cobalt sulphate market extended its weak trend, with psychological price levels between buyers and sellers continuing to diverge and transactions struggling to gain volume. Supply side, offers were clearly divergent: primary smelters had not yet fully digested earlier high-priced raw materials, and their offers remained around 80,000 yuan/mt, but with the MHP cobalt coefficient falling to around 80%, spot costs had already pulled back to 76,000-78,000 yuan/mt, and cost support had actually softened somewhat; recycling enterprises showed a stronger willingness to sell, with mainstream quotations at around 95% of the SMM low-end price, while some enterprises facing financial constraints continued to push down prices in exchange for liquidity, pushing low-priced resources in the market down to 70,000-72,000 yuan/mt, with a few isolated extreme deals heard at 68,000-70,000 yuan/mt, though still mainly sporadic spot orders. Demand side, conditions were weak, with downstream enterprises seeing only a slow recovery in orders, procurement limited to immediate needs, and some inquiry indications already pushed down to 68,000 yuan/mt, but the price spread between buyers and sellers remained wide, so actual concluded business was limited. In the short term, the cobalt sulphate market has yet to show clear signs of stopping the fall; price stabilisation still depends on a concentrated release of downstream restocking demand.

Aug 13, 2026 17:35