On September 20, to thoroughly implement the new development concept and promote high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, the General Office of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued the "Guidelines for Equipment Renewal and Technological Transformation in Key Industrial Sectors" (hereinafter referred to as the "Guidelines"). It sets clear development goals and specific paths for the non-ferrous metal industry, aiming to achieve a green, low-carbon transformation and intelligent upgrade through equipment renewal and technological transformation.
It mentions striving to achieve by 2027 a 5% reduction in carbon emissions per mt of aluminum, saving 200 kWh, phasing out prebaked anode aluminum electrolytic cells below 200 kA, with over 35% of aluminum capacity and over 55% of copper, lead, and zinc smelting capacity reaching energy efficiency benchmark levels. All capacity below the energy efficiency baseline will be phased out, significantly reducing emissions of sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides. The numerical control rate of key processes in large-scale non-ferrous metal enterprises will reach over 75%, and the capability for independent equipment assurance and the level of digital and intelligent applications will be significantly improved. Changes in aluminum smelting equipment and capacity must first comply with the relevant capacity replacement policies.
The document intensively proposes target figures for energy saving and carbon reduction in the aluminum industry, overlapping with previous related policies, so they will not be repeated here. The recent "Guidelines" highlight the elimination of prebaked anode electrolytic cells below 200 kA. The guidelines do not specify whether 200 kA is included, so we will assume it is included for argument's sake. In recent years, with the development of domestic aluminum production technology, China has not only become the world's largest aluminum producer but also mastered advanced production technology. Since the 1990s, when China independently developed the 300 kA prebaked anode electrolytic cell technology, producers of large electrolytic cells have become increasingly widespread domestically. The 400-600 kA electrolytic cells have become the main domestic electrolytic technology. According to SMM data, the current domestic existing capacity of aluminum is about 45.37 million mt, with approximately 1.07 million mt of capacity below 200 kA, accounting for about 2.4% of the total domestic aluminum existing capacity, mainly consisting of 200 kA type electrolytic cells.
The capacity of these aluminum smelters is mainly distributed in Qinghai, Gansu, Guizhou, and other regions. According to SMM's research, some companies are preparing to relocate and upgrade this part of the small cells by building new aluminum smelters to replace outdated cells. Other companies are responding to potential future policy changes by upgrading existing cells to improve current efficiency and reduce power consumption. Relevant information is as follows:
Brief Comment: Analysis of the research data shows that the domestic aluminum capacity of 200KA and below accounts for a small proportion, and most companies have plans for technological upgrades, thus having limited impact on short-term production. The domestic goals for energy saving and carbon reduction in aluminum are mainly achieved by optimizing the industry's power structure, improving current efficiency, and reducing power consumption. This goal requires joint efforts from upstream raw material supply, improvements in aluminum smelting technology, and energy saving in aluminum processing. Simply eliminating the small proportion of cells has limited effect.
