2024 National Day Holiday Copper Processing Enterprises Holiday Survey - Copper Cathode Rod [SMM Analysis]

During the National Day holiday, the shutdown capacity of copper cathode rod will increase by nearly 90% YoY! In late September, copper prices unexpectedly surged. As the National Day holiday approaches, SMM surveyed and summarized 20 major domestic copper cathode rod makers, involving a capacity of 7.2 million mt/year. The following is the complete survey content:

According to the survey, with the end-of-month copper price surge, downstream new orders significantly declined. Copper cathode rod makers generally held a wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook. Meanwhile, the operating rate of wire and cable factories is expected to decline for two consecutive weeks. Copper cathode rod makers generally chose to conduct maintenance or halt production during the National Day holiday. Compared with the same sample survey records from the previous year, the average holiday duration for samples during the 2023 National Day holiday was 2.2 days, while in 2024 it was 3.7 days. The average holiday duration for major domestic copper cathode rod makers in the 2024 National Day holiday survey sample increased by 1.5 days YoY, and the number of enterprises choosing to halt production during the holiday increased from 10 to 15.

Regarding the shutdown capacity, during the 2023 National Day holiday, the sample copper cathode rod makers had a shutdown capacity of 2.76 million mt/year, while in 2024 it reached 5.2 million mt/year. The shutdown capacity during the holiday increased by 88.41% YoY, adding 2.44 million mt/year.

Comparing data and previous survey records, the order and production schedule situation of copper cathode rod makers during the 2024 National Day holiday weakened significantly, suppressed by copper prices. There was also a lack of confidence in the future market. The specific production schedule will depend on copper prices and orders on hand, with overall consumption still lacking stable support.

Looking ahead to October, most enterprises are expected to experience a decline in the operating rate compared to September due to the National Day holiday. Compared to the same period last year, there was also a weakening trend, with only a few enterprises indicating YoY growth due to structural impacts or improvements in their orders.

SMM will continue to update you on the actual holiday production schedule and order situation of domestic copper cathode rod enterprises after the holiday, as well as the specific consumption trends and forecasts for September-October 2024.