As of Thursday, September 26, SMM copper stocks in major regions nationwide fell by 11,500 mt from Monday to 154,300 mt and decreased by 38,300 mt compared to last Thursday, marking the 12th consecutive week of destocking, with the speed still accelerating. The inventory hit a new low since the Chinese New Year. Compared to Monday, most regions saw a decline in stocks, with only Chongqing experiencing a slight increase. Total inventory was 81,200 mt higher compared to 73,100 mt in the same period last year, with Shanghai 53,500 mt higher, Jiangsu 11,300 mt higher, and Guangdong 19,300 mt higher.
Specifically, Shanghai's inventory decreased by 6,100 mt to 110,800 mt from Monday, and Jiangsu's inventory fell by 700 mt to 24,000 mt. Although stocks in east China continued to decline, the rate slowed down due to increased arrivals of imported copper. Last week, typhoon impacts reduced port operation efficiency in Shanghai, but this week saw a return to normal, increasing domestic warehouse arrivals. Guangdong's inventory decreased by 4,500 mt to 24,100 mt. Although arrivals in Guangdong warehouses increased slightly, outflows rose significantly, mainly due to downstream pre-holiday restocking, as reflected in the continuous rise in Guangdong's daily outflows.
Looking ahead, it is reported that imported copper will continue to increase next week, and with the National Day holiday, holders are expected to send more to warehouses, leading to an increase in total supply compared to this week. On the downstream consumption side, most have completed restocking this week, and the demand for further restocking next week will decline, with some downstream processing enterprises taking a five-day break. Total demand will decrease significantly compared to this week. Therefore, we expect a scenario of increased supply and decreased demand next week, with post-holiday inventory likely to rise, but the increase may not exceed last year's post-holiday accumulation of 44,200 mt.
