[SMM Tin Midday Review: Alphamin's Production Resumptions Signal End of Tin Market's Most Severe Supply Shock Phase, SHFE Tin Prices Pull Back] Today, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) exhibited a volatile and pulling-back trend. It opened higher in the morning at 264,750 yuan/mt (up 1,550 yuan/mt from yesterday's close), then pulled back amid volatility, with the price fluctuating around the 263,000 yuan/mt mark during the session. It closed at 261,030 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.03% intraday. Total open interest decreased to around 30,500 lots, as some bulls took profits and exited the market.

State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council (SASAC): Effectively Optimize the Layout of Strategic Emerging Industries and Future Industries SHFE tin prices remain high and range-bound [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) SASAC: Effectively optimize the layout of strategic emerging industries and future industries, and accelerate breakthroughs in key core technologies (bullish ★). (2) Goldman Sachs pushes back expectations for US Fed interest rate cuts to the end of the year, and lowers the possibility of a US recession (bullish ★). (3) US tariff revenue surged 130% YoY to $16 billion in April (bullish ★). (4) AI startup Perplexity's valuation soars to $14 billion. The AI search startup Perplexity is in talks for a new round of financing at a valuation of $14 billion, a significant increase from the previous round but below the initial target. Last year, Perplexity's valuation increased from $1 billion to $3 billion, and then tripled a few months later (bullish ★).

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 12 May, 2025

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Disagreements Between Bulls and Bears Intensify at the 260,000 Mark, SHFE Tin Prices Fluctuate Considerably] The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) opened at 262,500 yuan/mt, slightly higher than the previous trading day's closing price of 261,480 yuan/mt. The price fluctuated and consolidated during the session. In the morning, non-ferrous metals were generally under pressure, and the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 259,980 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.26% intraday. Trading volume and open interest decreased slightly, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment prevailing in the market.

Retail sales of passenger NEVs in April increased by 33.9% YoY. SHFE tin prices are expected to fluctuate rangebound. [SMM Tin Morning News] (1) Ambassador Wang Di stated that last year, Canada unilaterally imposed tariffs on China. We have been maintaining communication with the Canadian government, but unfortunately, despite China's repeated dissuasions, Canada still imposed unilateral tariffs on China. After investigation, China determined that these tariffs were indeed discriminatory measures targeting China, so we took corresponding countermeasures. (Bearish ★) (2) He Lifeng, the Chinese lead for China-US economic and trade negotiations and Vice Premier of the State Council, held high-level economic and trade talks with Bethune, the US lead and US Treasury Secretary, and Greer, the US Trade Representative, in Geneva, Switzerland. Both sides engaged in frank, in-depth, and constructive discussions on implementing the important consensus reached during the phone call between the Chinese and US heads of state on January 17, reaching a series of important consensus and making substantive progress in the talks. (Bullish ★) (3) CPCA: Retail sales of passenger NEVs in April increased by 33.9% YoY; retail sales of passenger vehicles nationwide increased by 14.5% YoY. (Bullish ★)

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Last Week, SHFE Tin Prices Showed a "Rise Then Fall" Trend, with the US Fed Maintaining Interest Rates Unchanged for the Third Consecutive Time] Last week, SHFE tin prices showed a "rise then fall" trend. At the beginning of the week, restocking demand was released, and restocking sentiment briefly heated up after the holiday. The price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2506) fluctuated around 260,000 yuan/mt. In the mid-week, prices jumped initially and then pulled back. Boosted by expectations of RRR cuts and interest rate cuts by the PBOC and Sino-US economic and trade talks, SHFE tin prices surged to 262,000 yuan/mt in the morning session, but pulled back in the afternoon due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and a strengthening US dollar, closing at 261,480 yuan/mt, down 0.16%. Macro pressures: The US Q1 GDP contracted 0.3% QoQ, and core PCE inflation rose to 3.5%, intensifying market concerns about an economic downturn. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, suppressing the non-ferrous metals sector. Prices fluctuated downward over the weekend. After opening, the most-traded SHFE tin contract fluctuated lower, closing at 259,980 yuan/mt at midday, down slightly by 0.26% during the day. On the international macro front, the US Q1 GDP contracted 0.3% QoQ, core PCE inflation rose to 3.5%, consumer confidence fell to a historic low, and the manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.7, indicating increased downward pressure on the economy. The US Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, emphasizing in its statement the rising risks of inflation and unemployment. The US dollar index fluctuated at highs, suppressing the overall valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector. Domestic tin mine supply remained constrained by the slow resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa region and the phased resumption of production at the Bisie tin mine in the DRC...

【SMM Analysis: Analysis of the Global and Domestic Tin Market's Supply-Demand Fundamentals in Q1 2025】Supply Side: Multiple Factors Exacerbate Shortages, Global Tin Ore Supply is Tight In Q1, global tin ore supply was impacted by multiple shocks, including geopolitical tensions and natural disasters: Wa Region, Myanmar: Due to the 7.9 magnitude earthquake that occurred on March 28, the risk of landslides in mining areas surged, and transportation routes were damaged. As the world's third-largest tin producer (accounting for 12%-15% of global supply), Wa Region's production resumption plans were forced to be postponed, and it is expected to resume normal production at the earliest by the end of Q2...

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 9 May, 2025