[SMM Analysis] The "September-October peak season" for the ternary market turned out to be just a dream.

In August this year, domestic retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.027 million units, up 43.2% YoY and 17% MoM. For the first time this year, monthly sales of new energy passenger vehicles exceeded one million units, with a penetration rate of 53.9%. It is expected that sales of new energy passenger vehicles in September and October will maintain a growth rate of around 10 points. Regarding battery cell, according to SMM forecasts, September power battery cell production will increase by 9% MoM, with ternary battery cells accounting for only 36%, up 6% MoM. Although there is growth in the power battery sector, the hot-selling models and new model launches in H2 have also driven demand for power battery stockpiling, but the incremental orders for batteries of popular models are mainly concentrated in a few supply chain enterprises.

Similarly, the demand for power batteries transmitted to ternary cathode materials enterprises also shows differentiation, with a high concentration among top-tier enterprises. The incremental feedback of the "September-October peak season" is only reflected in the top-tier enterprises on the materials side. Driven by leading ternary enterprises, the production of ternary cathode materials in August reached 62,000 mt, up 5% MoM; the operating rate increased from 41% in July to 43%. However, the production schedule forecast for September has already been lowered, contrary to the expectations brought by the "September-October peak season," appearing only briefly in August. Most ternary cathode enterprises are in a difficult situation, with many even beginning to shift to the LFP technology route.

After the "September-October peak season," 2024 is also nearing its end. The ternary industry, having passed the August peak, has begun a phase of reduction and conclusion. The "September-October peak season" for the ternary cathode industry turned out to be just a dream. When the dream ends, where is the path forward?