As Overseas Steel Mills Undergwent Maintenance, EMM Export Volume Decreased MoM [SMM Analysis]

The World Steel Association (worldsteel) revised its global steel demand outlook on 12 October, forecasting demand to remain broadly unchanged at 1.722 billion tonnes in 2026, before increasing by 1.7% to 1.752 billion tonnes in 2027. The downgrade largely reflects weaker-than-expected demand in China, where steel demand is projected to contract by 2.0% in 2026 and a further 1.0% in 2027. Outside China, demand is expected to grow by 1.5% in 2026 and accelerate to 4.0% in 2027. For the chromium market, the subdued global steel outlook suggests that a broad-based recovery in steel-related demand may take longer to materialize, although prospects vary by region. India’s steel demand is forecast to grow by 7.9% in 2026, while demand in the United States is projected to increase by 2.0%. These divergent regional trends provide important context for chrome ore and ferrochrome producers assessing end-market conditions. However, the forecast covers total steel demand rather than stainless steel specifically, so it does not directly quantify future chromium consumption.

South Africa’s chrome ore exports fell 10.75% month-on-month to 2.36 million tonnes in August 2026, while high-carbon ferrochrome exports increased 20.0% to 117,180 tonnes, highlighting diverging trends in the country’s chromium trade. China remained the leading destination for chrome ore, receiving 1.67 million tonnes, or 70.8% of total shipments, despite a 6.09% monthly decline. Ferrochrome exports, meanwhile, were supported by stronger shipments to North America, with Canada receiving 26,373 tonnes and the United States 26,029 tonnes, together accounting for 44.7% of South Africa’s ferrochrome exports.​ The contrasting movements point to softer overseas demand for raw chrome ore alongside a recovery in ferrochrome shipments, particularly to North America. However, the monthly rebound in ferrochrome exports does not yet establish a sustained recovery in domestic smelting, while China’s dominant share of ore exports leaves South African shipments exposed to changes in Chinese purchasing activity.

Published: Oct 16, 2026.