As of Thursday, September 19, SMM copper stocks in major regions nationwide stood at 192,600 mt, down 24,300 mt from last Thursday, marking the 11th consecutive week of destocking, with the destocking speed accelerating. The inventory continued to hit a new low since the Chinese New Year. Compared to last Thursday, inventories in most regions nationwide decreased, with only Tianjin showing a slight increase. Total inventory was 97,900 mt higher compared to 94,700 mt in the same period last year, with Shanghai 63,900 mt higher, Jiangsu 14,400 mt higher, and Guangdong 23,200 mt higher.
Specifically, Shanghai's inventory decreased by 18,400 mt to 133,600 mt from last Thursday, Jiangsu's inventory decreased by 3,100 mt to 20,900 mt. It is understood that the typhoon had little impact on the arrivals of imported copper, while domestic arrivals decreased due to production cuts. Meanwhile, downstream consumption in east China performed well during the Mid-Autumn Festival, which is another important reason for the continuous decline in inventory in this region. Guangdong's inventory decreased by 3,200 mt to 33,700 mt, mainly due to pre-holiday restocking, but post-holiday inventory rose for two consecutive days due to weak consumption, as reflected in the jump initially and then pull back in Guangdong's daily outflows from warehouses. The increase in Tianjin's inventory was due to the resumption of production by nearby smelters.
Looking ahead, domestic copper arrivals will continue to decrease next week, but imported copper arrivals will increase, with total supply expected to decrease slightly WoW. On the demand side, downstream end-users will restock before the National Day holiday, leading to a significant improvement in consumption next week. Therefore, we believe that next week will see a decrease in supply and an increase in demand, with weekly inventory likely to continue its downward trend.
