Rare Earth Market Saw Production and Price Surge in August; What Factors Will Influence Market Performance in September Peak Season? [SMM Monthly Analysis]

In August, factors such as the flat listing prices of China Northern Rare Earth to stabilize market confidence, a significant slowdown in the increase of rare earth mining quotas, a reduction in rare earth ore imports, a gradual market transition from off-season to peak season, a slow rise in downstream demand, and optimistic expectations for peak season demand led to a surge in both production and prices for Pr-Nd oxide and terbium oxide. The price of Pr-Nd oxide rose sharply by 11.17% in August. The price and production of dysprosium oxide saw slight declines. With the strong rebound in Pr-Nd prices and the increase in demand, the prices of dysprosium and terbium began to show an overall upward trend in September.

Pr-Nd Oxide: August Price Increase of 11.17% and a 4.15% MoM Increase in Production

Light Rare Earths: Taking the price trend of Pr-Nd oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing data, the average price of Pr-Nd oxide was 367,000 yuan/mt on July 31 and 408,000 yuan/mt on August 30, reflecting a price increase of 41,000 yuan/mt or 11.17% MoM in August. As of September 12, driven by factors like China Northern Rare Earth's high listing prices, improved demand expectations in the peak season, and large-scale centralized procurement biddings, rare earth prices have generally risen. However, the rapid increase in rare earth prices led to downstream demand lagging behind, causing a significant pullback in Pr-Nd prices due to limited downstream transactions. Nevertheless, Pr-Nd prices saw a slight rebound again on September 12.

Pr-Nd Oxide Production: In August 2024, domestic Pr-Nd oxide production reached 7,863 mt, a 4.15% MoM increase. SMM analysis indicates that the increase in Pr-Nd production primarily stemmed from higher demand and rising Pr-Nd prices, which boosted the enthusiasm of producers.

Dysprosium Oxide: August Price Drop of 0.29% and a 2.64% MoM Decrease in Production

Medium-Heavy Rare Earths: Taking the price trend of dysprosium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing data, the average price of dysprosium oxide was 1,710 yuan/kg on July 31 and 1,705 yuan/kg on August 30, representing a decrease of 5 yuan/kg or 0.29% MoM in August. As of September 12, dysprosium oxide prices mostly continued to rise, with the average price now at 1,750 yuan/kg.

Dysprosium Oxide Production: In August 2024, domestic dysprosium oxide production was 221 mt, a 2.64% MoM decrease.

Terbium Oxide: August Price Increase of 4.82% and a 10.31% MoM Increase in Production

Medium-Heavy Rare Earths: Taking the price trend of terbium oxide as an example, according to SMM pricing data, the average price of terbium oxide was 5,080 yuan/kg on July 31 and 5,325 yuan/kg on August 30, reflecting a price increase of 245 yuan/kg or 4.82% MoM in August. As of September 12, terbium oxide prices generally continued to rise, with the average price now at 5,690 yuan/kg.

Terbium Oxide Production: In August 2024, domestic terbium oxide production stood at 46.33 mt, a 10.31% MoM increase.

Future Outlook: Growth in Downstream Orders and the Resumption of Myanmar’s Ore Supplies to Affect September Peak Season Performance

According to SMM, previous sharp rises in rare earth prices driven by various positive factors saw limited downstream demand follow-up, leading to price pullbacks. The subsequent price adjustments helped alleviate losses at downstream metal factories, with fundamentals starting to impact market performance. The market is gradually returning to rationality. Current recovery in downstream demand remains slow, and future performance will depend on the growth of downstream orders. Additionally, the outcome of further centralized procurement biddings by large factories and the resumption of Myanmar’s rare earth ore supplies will significantly influence the market.

In summary, with market sentiment gradually returning to rationality, rare earth prices are expected to remain relatively stable in the short term, with medium and long-term performance mainly depending on supply and demand changes. Particularly, whether there will be a significant increase in downstream demand orders in mid to late September could directly impact the performance during the September peak season.