Overseas supply saw production cuts; aluminum prices are expected to rise in the short term [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

Futures: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,350 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a peak of 19,385 yuan/mt and a low of 19,275 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,310 yuan/mt, down 80 yuan/mt (-0.41%). On Tuesday, LME aluminum opened at $2,364/mt, with a high of $2,375/mt and a low of $2,332.5/mt, closing at $2,342/mt, down $20.5/mt (-0.87%).

Summary: On the macro side, the US Fed's rate cut in September is almost certain, China continues to boost consumption, and the hot war situation presents new variables. On the fundamentals side, overseas supply experiences production cuts while the peak consumption season boosts demand. Therefore, social inventories start to deplete. In the short term, aluminum prices may fluctuate upward driven by fundamentals, but the sustainability of the consumption recovery and changes in supply capacity need to be observed in the future.