US PCE Data Cools September Rate Cut Expectations, Inventory Reduction Stalls, SHFE Aluminum Weakly Consolidates [SMM Aluminum Morning Comment]

SMM, Sep 2: Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2410 contract opened at 19,825 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,840 yuan/mt, a low of 19,750 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,760 yuan/mt, down 90 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.45%. Last Friday, LME aluminum opened at $2,460/mt, with a high of $2,498/mt, a low of $2,440.5/mt, and closed at $2,446/mt, down $25.5/mt, a decrease of 1.03%.
Summary: On the macro side, US July PCE data met expectations, cooling rate cut expectations. On the fundamentals side, recent power rationing and other disturbances have not had a substantial impact on aluminum production, with the supply side remaining relatively stable. The demand side is entering the traditional peak season, with consumption gradually recovering, and an inventory reduction turning point is expected. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to still have upside potential, with continued attention needed on macro changes and the sustainability of downstream aluminum consumption.