Hot-Rolled Coil Futures Narrow Decline Amid Steel Export Drop and Inventory Pressures

Published: Aug 19, 2024 17:36
[SMM Daily Comment on Hot-rolled Coil: Steel Exports Decline MoM; Narrower Decline in Hot-rolled Coil Futures] The hot-rolled coil futures market weakened today, closing at 3,176 in the afternoon, with a loss of 1.27%. Although the decline narrowed, market participants remained cautious, and trading of hot-rolled coils was sluggish. According to SMM's tracking survey, China's total steel exports from ports last week stood at 214, down 19% MoM. Amidst steel plant production cuts, the pressure on hot-rolled coil inventories is still increasing slightly, reflecting the weakness of the steel market. If demand does not improve substantially, it will continue to suppress steel prices. On the raw material side, steel plants' maintenance and overhaul activities are still on an upward trend, with negative feedback persisting. This has weakened the support from raw materials, and consequently, the cost support for hot-rolled coils has also diminished. In conclusion, hot-rolled coil prices are expected to remain weak in the short term, but the downward trend is expected to slow down.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].
Feb 6, 2026 18:30
Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].
Read More
Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].
Before the holiday, the black chain is unlikely to see a trend-driven market [SMM Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report].
This week, ferrous metals were in the doldrums, with coking coal and coke staging a mid-week rise. At the beginning of the week, financial markets experienced sharp fluctuations, dragging down sentiment in the ferrous chain and leading to a pullback in futures. Mid-week, Indonesia's cut to coke production quotas drove coking coal and coke futures to lead the gains, though the impact was more pronounced on thermal coal, while coking coal's rise was largely sentiment-driven and short-lived. In the latter part of the week, finished products continued their seasonal inventory buildup, and support from the raw material side weakened, causing the entire ferrous chain to pull back. In the spot market, with the Chinese New Year holiday approaching, purchasing activity slowed down further, with end-users only making limited, as-needed purchases at low prices.
Feb 6, 2026 18:30
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)
Feb 6, 2026 18:09
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)
Read More
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)
MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (February 6)
Today, the DCE iron ore futures continued to hit bottom today, with the most-traded contract I2605 closing at 760.5 yuan/mt, down 1.23% from the previous trading day. Spot prices fell by 5–10 yuan/mt compared to the previous trading day.
Feb 6, 2026 18:09
[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday
Feb 6, 2026 17:41
[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday
Read More
[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday
[SMM Chromium Daily Review] Inquiries and Transactions Weakened, Chromium Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday
[SMM Chrome Daily Review: Trading and Inquiries Weakened, Chrome Market Showed Mediocre Performance Before the Holiday] February 6, 2026: Today, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat MoM from the previous trading day...
Feb 6, 2026 17:41