[SMM Weekly Survey on Aluminum Downstream: High Fluctuations in Aluminum Prices Suppress Downstream Consumption; Sustainability of Recovery in Export Orders Requires Continuous Monitoring] This week, the operating rate of leading enterprises in China's aluminum downstream processing sector fell by 0.3 percentage points WoW to 61.6%, with a fragmented pattern observed across various segments...

According to SMM statistics, in terms of aluminum billet inventory in two domestic locations, the inventory of aluminum billet in Guangdong was 73,900 mt, and that in Wuxi was 14,300 mt, totaling 88,200 mt, a decrease of 600 mt MoM. After filling the gap at 20,300, the most-traded SHFE aluminum contract struggled to rise, showing range-bound adjustments. Today, processing fees across regions came under pressure and pulled back, with suppliers showing willingness to sell at higher prices. Despite the approaching weekend, downstream buyers were cautious and lacked sufficient purchasing strength. Suppliers were willing to further lower processing fees to facilitate transactions. Both supply and demand in the market were weak, with insufficient trading sentiment. Today, the processing fees in the Foshan aluminum billet market were reported at 300/350 yuan/mt, down by 10 yuan/mt; in the Wuxi market, they were reported at 300/350 yuan/mt, down by 20 yuan/mt; and in the Nanchang region, they were reported at 300/350 yuan/mt, down by 50 yuan/mt. (Unit: yuan/mt)

[SMM Spot Aluminum Midday Review: Supply Tightens in East China, Spot Premiums Continue to Rise]

Details of the hot topics in the aluminum market this week (May 12-15, 2025) are as follows......

According to SMM statistics, the composite operating rate of the domestic aluminum wire and cable industry reached 58.16% in April 2025, up 5.27% MoM from April and up 3.9% YoY from April last year. Since Q2, the industry has maintained a favorable operational trend. From the perspective of enterprise scale, the operating rate of large enterprises increased by 4.65% MoM to 73.56%, that of medium-sized enterprises rose by 5.5% MoM to 51.21%, and that of small enterprises improved by 7.63% MoM to 33.9%.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,527.5/mt. Prices fluctuated at the beginning of the session, dipping to a low of $9,511.0/mt during the session, before fluctuating upward.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Bullish Macro Atmosphere and Destocking in Fundamentals Support Aluminum Prices] Favorable macro factors provide bottom support for aluminum prices, and low inventory further strengthens price resilience. However, off-season pressure on the demand side limits upside room. If China and the US achieve a breakthrough in the 232 steel and aluminum tariff negotiations, the global aluminum trade flow will be reshaped, and the supply pressure in markets outside the US is expected to ease, further boosting market sentiment and supporting aluminum prices.

In May, China's domestic aluminum ingot inventory successfully surpassed the 600,000 mt mark, demonstrating strong resilience in domestic aluminum consumption during the critical transition phase between the off-season and peak season, providing crucial support for the recent consecutive upward trend in aluminum prices. According to SMM statistics, as of May 15, the inventory of aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption hubs stood at 581,000 mt, a decrease of 20,000 mt from Monday this week, down 39,000 mt WoW from Thursday last week, and 166,000 mt YoY, remaining at a low level compared to the same period in the past three years. However, it is noteworthy that aluminum prices have rebounded and risen consecutively in mid-May, with aluminum prices breaking through the 20,000 yuan per mt threshold, which has somewhat suppressed downstream restocking demand. There have been noticeable signs of a decline in domestic outflows from warehouses over the past week, potentially gradually returning to off-season levels. SMM forecasts that...

In May, China's domestic aluminum ingot inventory successfully surpassed the 600,000 mt mark, demonstrating that domestic aluminum consumption remains resilient during the critical transition phase between the off-season and peak season, providing significant support for the recent consecutive upward trend in aluminum prices. According to SMM statistics, as of May 15, the inventory of aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption hubs stood at 581,000 mt, a decrease of 20,000 mt from Monday this week, a decrease of 39,000 mt WoW from Thursday last week, and a decrease of 166,000 mt YoY, still remaining at a low level compared to the same period in the past three years. However, it is noteworthy that aluminum prices have rebounded and risen consecutively in mid-May, with aluminum prices surpassing the 20,000 yuan per mt threshold exerting a certain inhibitory effect on downstream restocking demand. There have been noticeable signs of a decline in domestic outflows from warehouses over the past week, which may gradually return to off-season levels. SMM forecasts that...