Last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2409 contract opened at 19,295 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,445 yuan/mt and a low of 19,395 yuan/mt, closing at 19,395 yuan/mt, up 105 yuan/mt, or 0.54%. On Friday, LME 3M aluminum opened at $2,358.5/mt, with a high of $2,374/mt and a low of $2,338.5/mt, closing at $2,368/mt, up $12/mt, or 0.509%.
Summary: Recently, US July real estate data performed poorly on the macro side, but consumer confidence and inflation data performed well, alleviating concerns about economic recession. Additionally, geopolitical tensions have risen again, providing support for the non-ferrous metals market. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum supply has basically peaked, with only sporadic resumption of production expected in places like Guizhou and Sichuan in the future. Downstream operating rates have slightly increased last week, thanks to improved orders for 3C and NEVs, with leading profile enterprises seeing a slight rise in operating rates. Meanwhile, under the traditional peak season and domestic economic stimulus policy, downstream consumption is expected to improve. Last week, aluminum social inventory continued to decline slightly, and the inventory turning point may appear in the second half of August, further weakening the supply-demand mismatch. Considering the recent strong performance of alumina, which provides solid cost support for aluminum, SMM expects that short-term aluminum prices may complete a bottoming out and show a rebound trend. Continued attention should be paid to aluminum consumption and changes in aluminum social inventory.
