As of Thursday, August 15, SMM copper stocks in major regions across the country fell by 17,200 mt WoW to 301,600 mt, and decreased by 36,800 mt compared to last Thursday, marking the fifth consecutive week of destocking, with the destocking speed accelerating. Compared to Monday's inventory changes, the inventory levels varied across different regions, with only Jiangsu and Tianjin showing slight increases, while other regions saw declines. The total inventory was 226,800 mt higher compared to 74,800 mt in the same period last year, with Shanghai 154,100 mt higher YoY, Jiangsu 34,500 mt higher YoY, and Guangdong 37,800 mt higher YoY.
Specifically, Shanghai's inventory decreased by 14,200 mt WoW to 200,400 mt, thanks to strong consumption in east China and reduced arrivals, leading to a faster destocking speed in the region. Jiangsu's inventory slightly increased by 1,000 mt WoW to 37,600 mt, as most of the inventory in the region was in warrants, and holders were less willing to release warrants this week, resulting in minimal inventory changes. Guangdong's inventory decreased by 3,200 mt WoW to 57,200 mt, as nearby smelters in Guangdong reduced production, leading to fewer arrivals, while consumption increased, as reflected by the high daily outflows from warehouses in Guangdong.
Looking ahead, domestic supply is expected to decrease due to smelter production cuts, and the arrivals of imported copper next week will be limited, leading to a projected decline in total supply compared to this week. On the demand side, copper prices remain low, and many secondary copper rod makers have halted production due to new policies, which is expected to increase consumption next week. Therefore, we anticipate a scenario of reduced supply and increased demand next week, with weekly inventories likely to continue decreasing.
