Futures: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,768.5/mt, touched a low of $9,747.5/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated upward throughout the day, nearing a high of $9,865/mt before closing at $9,840/mt, up 1.17%.

Tin prices stabilize at the 270,000 mark, with downstream enterprises adopting a wait-and-see attitude [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has invested heavily in computing power construction, achieving remarkable development results. Data shows that by 2025, China's general computing power capacity is expected to grow by 20%, while intelligent computing power capacity is projected to increase by 43%, ranking second globally, just behind the US. Over the past five years, the total computing power capacity has grown at an annual rate of approximately 30%. (2) It was reported that US President Trump stated on Monday that he might allow Nvidia to sell a "special version" of its Blackwell AI chip in China, which is likely to be more powerful than the previously approved H20 chip for sale in China. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian stated that specific questions should be directed to the competent Chinese authorities. China has repeatedly stated its principled position on US chip exports to China and hopes that the US will take concrete actions to maintain the stability and smoothness of the global industrial and supply chains.

The global semiconductor industry is currently in a phase of cyclical adjustment. The price of SHFE tin maintains a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) According to the latest statistics from CINNO Research, in the first half of 2025 (H1), the total investment in China's semiconductor industry (including Taiwan) was 455 billion yuan, representing a 9.8% YoY decline. This change reflects that the global semiconductor industry is currently in a phase of cyclical adjustment. Moreover, compared to the 41.6% YoY decline last year, there has been a notable improvement and convergence. (2) In response to the market rumor that "Nvidia and AMD have agreed to hand over 15% of their AI chip sales revenue from the Chinese market to the US government," Nvidia responded that it adheres to the rules set by the US government for participating in the global market. The demand for accelerated computing is global, and Nvidia will continue to serve as many customers as possible within the scope of the rules. As of now, AMD has not yet responded.

[SMM Morning Meeting Summary: Trump Plans to Impose 100% Tariffs on Semiconductor Goods, Tin Prices May Maintain Fluctuating Trend] On the international macro front, Trump plans to impose 100% tariffs on semiconductor goods, but exempts enterprises that build factories in the US. This policy has sparked widespread market concern and uncertainty. The EU has stated that even if the US imposes new tariffs on semiconductors, the tariff ceiling for chips exported from the EU to the US will remain at 15%. Additionally, New Zealand's unemployment rate rose to its highest level in nearly five years in Q2, which may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to restart interest rate cuts. Domestically, the overall supply and demand in the tin ore market is tight. In terms of supply, the supply of tin ore in major producing areas such as Yunnan is tightening, and some smelters may maintain production shutdowns for maintenance or slightly cut production in August. Demand side, after the installation rush in the PV industry ended, orders declined. The electronics industry has entered the off-season, and end-users have strong wait-and-see sentiment, with orders only meeting just-in-time procurement needs. Demand in other sectors such as tinplate and chemicals remains stable. Transactions in the spot market are sluggish, with downstream enterprises mostly restocking at lower prices in the early stage and currently only making just-in-time procurement. Overall, it is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at highs this week. Investors are advised to closely monitor changes in international policies and domestic market supply and demand, and operate cautiously...

The US Department of Commerce began issuing licenses for Nvidia's H20 chips. SHFE tin prices maintained a fluctuating trend [SMM Tin Morning News]. Macro: (1) After Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang met with Trump at the White House, the US Department of Commerce began issuing licenses for Nvidia's H20 chips. In the weeks prior, the US Department of Commerce had delayed issuing this license to Nvidia. (2) In July this year, the US Congress passed the so-called "Big and Beautiful" bill, strongly promoted by President Trump. The bill stipulates that the US government will no longer provide tax credits for EVs starting from September 30 this year. According to a report by CNBC on the 9th, US consumers are rushing to buy EVs to take advantage of the $7,500 tax credit before the deadline. Data shows that EV sales accounted for 9.1% of total passenger vehicle sales in July, a record high. Additionally, used EV sales in the US in July also approached 36,700 units, setting a new monthly record. The company expects that Q3 may see a record in EV sales. However, in Q4 this year, US EV sales may "plummet.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Continues to Fluctuate at Highs, with Expectations for US Fed Interest Rate Cut Continuing to Fester as Core Support] On the afternoon of August 8, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 268,020 yuan/mt, up approximately 490 yuan from the previous day's settlement price, representing a 0.18% increase. Prices fluctuated at highs during the day, with the trading range narrowing to 267,260-268,790 yuan/mt. Market sentiment was cautious, with downstream order volumes remaining low. Meanwhile, the LME tin contract pulled back slightly to around $33,720 in the early Asian session, reflecting overseas bullish sentiment being disrupted by both macro policies and inventory divergence.

EU: A 15% tariff cap will still apply to chips exported to the US. SHFE tin prices remain high and rangebound. [SMM Tin Morning News] Macro: (1) According to the official WeChat account of Chengdu Release on the evening of August 7, the 28th Chengdu International Auto Show will be held from August 29 to September 7. The latest car consumption subsidy activities in Jinjiang District and Chenghua District have been announced. In Jinjiang District, for the purchase of new household passenger vehicles (including passenger NEVs and internal combustion engine passenger vehicles), after submitting the required documents and meeting the corresponding conditions, and upon passing the review, subsidies will be provided in the form of UnionPay red envelopes, with a maximum subsidy of 4,500 yuan for car purchases in Jinjiang District. In Chenghua District, for the purchase of new household passenger vehicles (including internal combustion engine vehicles and NEVs) from above-scale automakers, after submitting the required documents and meeting the corresponding conditions, and upon passing the review, subsidies of up to 6,500 yuan for car purchases will be provided in the form of UnionPay red envelopes. (2) The EU has stated that even if President Trump announces new tariffs on semiconductors entering the US, the tariff cap on chips exported from the EU to the US will remain at 15%. EU spokesman Olof Gill said on Thursday that Washington has committed that the 15% tariff cap will apply to EU semiconductor exports, regardless of what tariffs the US imposes on other exporters. He said, "We expect the US to honor this commitment." (3) Tariffs: ① Reciprocal tariffs have officially taken effect. Trump: Billions of dollars will start flowing into the US. ② EU: A 15% tariff cap will still apply to chip exports to the US. ③ Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba: There are no disagreements between Japan and the US regarding not imposing existing tariffs on goods imported from Japan.

[SMM Tin Futures Brief Commentary: Macro Disruptions and Tug-of-War Between Sellers and Buyers Intertwine as SHFE Tin Seeks Direction Amidst Volatility] On August 7, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by a rebound. It opened at 268,000 yuan/mt, with the intraday low reaching 266,550 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, it was boosted by the recovery of macro sentiment, ultimately closing at 267,940 yuan/mt, up 1,080 yuan (a 0.4% increase) from the previous day, with a trading volume of 11.802 billion yuan. During the same period, the LME tin contract closed up 1.04% at $33,575/mt, reflecting the ongoing tug-of-war between overseas low inventory support and macro disruptions.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: SHFE Tin Fluctuates at Highs Under Pressure, Supply Bottlenecks and Macro Factors Intensify Competition] During the midday session on August 7, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2509) closed at 267,430 yuan/mt, up approximately 0.21% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday fluctuation range narrowed to 266,550-268,700 yuan/mt, with market sentiment remaining cautious. Meanwhile, the LME tin 3-month contract was quoted at $33,345/mt during the Asian session, up $115 from the previous day, reaching a high of $33,430 during the day, but with significant resistance above.