Weak supply and demand in fundamentals, short-term fluctuations in tin prices, "waiting for the wind" - macro factors may become the key to breaking the deadlock!

[SMM Monthly Outlook: LME and SHFE Tin Prices Decline for Two Consecutive Months; With Intensified Macroeconomic Game, the Pace of Production Resumptions in Major Producing Regions Becomes the Core Variable Affecting Tin Price Trends] Unlike the sharp decline in tin prices in April, tin prices in May generally fluctuated rangebound. As May month-end approached, despite the short-term tight supply situation of tin ore not yet improving, market expectations for supply recovery due to the gradual resumption of production at tin mines in Myanmar's Wa region and the DRC increased. Additionally, uncertainties surrounding the US tariff policy led to a cooling of market risk appetite, resulting in a significant correction in tin prices. As of around 18:10 on May 30, LME tin fell by 1.56% to $30,750/mt, with a temporary monthly decline of 1.91% in May; SHFE tin dropped by 2.87% to 250,300 yuan/mt, with a monthly decline of 4.39% in May.

[SMM Tin Midday Review: Downstream Restocking Demand Released on Dips, SHFE Tin Prices Remain Low]​​ As of the midday break, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) was quoted at 251,120 yuan/mt​​, down 2.55% from the previous settlement price. After opening in the morning, it continued to face downward pressure, dropping to a low of 250,000 yuan/mt. Open interest increased to 33,400 lots, reflecting the coexistence of bears actively pushing prices down and longs exiting the market to hedge risks. Rumors of Production Resumptions in Wa Region, Myanmar:​​ The market is abuzz with rumors that the first batch of tin ore from Wa Region has obtained export licenses (yet to be confirmed). If true, an increase in output (planned monthly production of 800-1,000 mt) may be expected by the end of June. However, given the strict customs clearance inspections at the China-Myanmar border, the entry of large equipment and personnel is delayed, casting doubt on the actual progress of production resumptions.

Futures Market: Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,608.0/mt.

China urges the US to completely eliminate unilateral tariff hikes. SHFE tin prices continue to decline during the night session [SMM Tin Morning News]. (1) Cui Dongshu: From January to April this year, China accounted for 68% of the global new energy vehicle market share and 12% of the overseas new energy vehicle market share for domestic brands. (Bullish ★) (2) Ministry of Commerce: China urges the US to completely eliminate unilateral tariff hikes. (Bullish ★) (3) US Fed's Goolsbee: If tariffs are avoided through agreements or other means, it may return to a situation where interest rate cuts are possible. (4) Global tariffs - ① The US Court of International Trade has halted Trump's "Liberation Day" trade policy, and the Trump administration has filed a notice of appeal. ② Hassett: The tariff ruling will be overturned, and the ruling will not affect the current progress of trade agreements. ③ US trade advisor: The court ruling has not changed the course of events, and our side has a strong chance of winning. ④ Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had a 25-minute phone call with Trump. Kishida stated that if necessary, he might visit the US before the G7 Summit. ⑤ Indian officials: The US trade team will visit India from June 5 to 6. Trade negotiations are proceeding as planned, and the impact of the US court ruling on tariff decisions is being studied. (Neutral)