SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Aug 13)

Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum contract 2409 opened at 19,210 yuan/mt overnight, with a high of 19,210 yuan/mt, a low of 19,105 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,140 yuan/mt, up 17 yuan/mt, or 0.09%. On Monday, LME 3M aluminum opened at $2,299/mt, with a high of $2,331.5/mt, a low of $2,297/mt, and closed at $2,309/mt, up $14/mt, or 0.61%.

Summary: On the macro front, the Chinese government continues to boost the domestic economy, and the US Fed's interest rate cuts remain uncertain in the short term. Fundamentally, domestic aluminum operating capacity is gradually stabilizing, and the supply side is peaking. Cost side, the alumina market prices are fluctuating at high levels, providing strong support for aluminum fundamentals. Entering August, downstream aluminum consumption shows signs of stabilizing and recovering, with social inventory showing a slight destocking trend, indicating positive signals. SMM expects aluminum prices to bottom out.