MMi Daily Iron Ore Report (Aug 9)

[Turkey] Turkish domestic rebar prices extended their downward trajectory as traders widened discounts to accelerate destocking, forcing domestic mills to lower their offers. Turkish rebar ex-works prices declined further to 615 USD/tonne EXW (excluding VAT). By region, traders in Iskenderun lowered quotes to 615–620 USD/tonne EXW, while Marmara mills similarly marked down offers by 5–10 USD/tonne to 640–645 USD/tonne EXW. Spot trading remained subdued throughout the day; market participants noted that the financial turmoil triggered by the liquidation of over 100 Turkish investment funds in September continues to reverberate, tightening liquidity and further dampening business confidence. Meanwhile, maritime security in the Black Sea deteriorated further following the fire and subsequent sinking of a Turkish vessel within Romania's exclusive economic zone. The market broadly fears that this incident will significantly drive up Black Sea shipping risk premiums, disrupting key logistical routes—particularly Turkish rebar exports to Romania and scrap imports from the country. On the export front, rebar FOB export prices held stable at 615 USD/tonne FOB amid sluggish trading.

[Europe] Weighed down by persistently slow and subdued trading activity, European hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices faced broad downward pressure. Currently, buyers are heavily focused on assessing the customs clearance backlog for Q4 import arrivals and calculating the potential impact of proportional safeguard duties on Turkish material. In terms of pricing, Northwest European HRC ex-works prices edged down to 728 EUR/tonne EXW (~818 USD/tonne), while the Italian domestic price slipped to 736 EUR/tonne EXW (~826 USD/tonne). According to SMM research, inventory destocking has progressed slower than anticipated; however, tightening supply alongside finalized duty implementations is expected to lend upward support to prices. On the domestic supply side, market attention remains zeroed in on Acciaierie d'Italia (ADI) after the Milan Court of Appeal rejected the mill's second bid to suspend a court order mandating the shutdown of its hot-end blast furnaces, sparking widespread concern over its operational outlook. In the import segment, offers for Indian HRC to Italy were heard slightly above Turkish material at around 710 USD/tonne CIF Italy. Turkish cargoes are anticipated to face an effective duty of roughly 15%, prompting some buyers to consider holding material in bonded storage until the next quota reset before clearing customs. Overall, buying interest in fresh import bookings remains heavily constrained.

Tata Steel plans to add around 5 million tonnes/year of steelmaking capacity at its Neelachal Ispat Nigam Ltd (NINL) facility in Kalinganagar, Odisha with an investment of around INR 40,000 cr, CEO and MD TV Narendran speaking at the IFQM Symposium 2026. The expansion will focus on long products and is aimed at strengthening the company’s long steel business. Tata Steel acquired NINL in July 2022 for around INR 12,100 cr when the plant had a capacity of 1 million tonnes/year. The company completed the Phase II expansion at its Kalinganagar plant last year, taking its overall steelmaking capacity in India to 26.1 million tonnes/year.