SMM Analysis Of Refined Bismuth In July And Forecast For August

According to SMM's survey of bismuth producers nationwide, China's refined bismuth output in July 2024 was 1,836.484 mt, showing a slight decline. Compared to the national refined bismuth output of 1,812.953 mt in June 2024, it was up 1.3% MoM. After three consecutive months of rebound from April to June, the output continued its upward trend in July, although the increase was modest. From the producers' production situation, the previously tight raw material supply has improved. Market participants generally expected the stable rebound in July's output, which is also related to the resumption of production by many producers in Hunan after the completion of inspections by the central environmental protection inspection team. Additionally, the recent significant rise in bismuth prices has somewhat boosted producers' processing enthusiasm, leading to a gradual increase in output.

From the detailed data, among the 24 surveyed producers by SMM, only three saw a significant decline in output in July, and one producer halted production; however, six producers experienced a significant increase in output. This resulted in the overall refined bismuth ingot output in July still maintaining an upward trend compared to the previous month. However, some market participants indicated that due to the record high bismuth prices, the supply of bismuth raw materials might remain tight in the future. Therefore, tight raw material supply is one of the reasons that cannot be ignored for potential fluctuations in output. Consequently, SMM expects that the national refined bismuth output in August 2024 is likely to stabilize, with a possibility of a slight rebound. However, it is still challenging to surpass 2,000 mt in the short term.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing the national refined bismuth output. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, the total number of surveyed refined bismuth producers is 24, distributed across eight provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate of over 99%.