Limited Decline and Persistent Oversupply Characterize July's High-Carbon Ferrochrome Production at 776,000 mt

Published: Aug 8, 2024 13:27

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Based on data from SMM, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production slightly declined in July 2024 to 776,000 metric tons (mt), a month-over-month (MoM) decrease of 25,000 mt or 3.12%, but it increased year-over-year (YoY) by 174,500 mt or 29.01%. Inner Mongolia's contribution was 516,000 mt, down 21,100 mt MoM (3.93% decrease), while Guizhou produced 37,000 mt, registering a 14.94% MoM decline. Despite high bidding prices for high-carbon ferrochrome from stainless steel mills in July, steel mills significantly reduced their procurement outside long-term contracts, leading to a sluggish retail market and a drop in retail ferrochrome prices. The high cost of chrome ore continued to squeeze manufacturers' profit margins, diminishing production enthusiasm. Additionally, equipment maintenance by some manufacturers contributed to the decline in high-carbon ferrochrome production in July

根据SMM数据显示，2024年7月中国高碳铬铁产量小幅下降至77.6万吨，环比下降2.5万吨或3.12%，但同比增长17.45万吨或29.01%。内蒙古贡献量为51.6万吨，环比下降2.11万吨（下降3.93%），贵州产量为3.7万吨，环比下降14.94%。尽管7月份不锈钢厂的高碳铬铁投标价格较高，但钢厂大幅减少了长期合同之外的采购，导致零售市场低迷，铬铁零售价格下跌。铬矿的高成本继续挤压厂家的利润空间，降低了生产热情。此外，一些制造商的设备维护也导致了7月份高碳铬铁产量的下降。

预计8月份的产量将进一步下降至771,700吨。8月份各大不锈钢厂高碳铬铁采购价格打破了四个月的稳定趋势，下跌100元/Cr50%。尽管降价幅度有限，但铬矿成本高企导致铬铁企业出现倒挂现象。然而，随着被称为“黄金九月和银色十月”的消费高峰期的临近，制造商仍然对需求增加充满希望。部分厂家仍持有较早采购的低成本铬矿，缓解了价格下跌的影响。目前，产能主要集中在北部地区的大型制造商手中，这些地区停产的成本很高，导致几乎没有减产计划。总体而言，预计铬铁产量不会出现重大调整。

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