SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Aug 8)

Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2409 contract opened at 18,885 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 19,025 yuan/mt and a low of 18,820 yuan/mt, and closed at 18,935 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt, or 0.08%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,297.5/mt, reached a high of $2,300/mt and a low of $2,247.5/mt, and closed at $2,273/mt, down $28/mt, or 1.22%.

Summary: On the macro front, the Chinese government continues to boost the domestic economy, global liquidity is gradually increasing, and regional conflicts are escalating, providing upward momentum for aluminum prices. On the fundamentals, aluminum production in July was 3.683 million mt, and operating capacity gradually stabilized in August with limited subsequent increases, indicating that the supply side is gradually peaking. Entering August, downstream aluminum consumption shows signs of stabilizing and recovering, and aluminum ingot inventory is expected to gradually peak. In the short term, both macro and fundamental factors are converging, and aluminum prices may bottom out.