[SMM Analysis] Chile's SQM Exceeds Q2 Profit Projections Amid Tighter Lithium Supply-Demand, Sales Up 59% YoY
SQM reported Q2 2026 net income of $660.0 million, up 646.4% year-on-year, on revenue of $2,468.4 million (+136.7% YoY) and gross profit of $1,260.0 million, versus $253.0 million a year earlier. Lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) sales volumes hit a record 84,100 tonnes, up 59% year-on-year and roughly 22% quarter-on-quarter (from ~69,000 tonnes in Q1 2026). Novandino's average realized lithium price reached ~$21.8/kg (+23% QoQ, +160% YoY); the International Lithium Division's average realized spodumene price hit ~$2,048/tonne (+40% QoQ, +160% YoY). Lithium and Derivatives segment revenue totaled $1,779.2 million, up 299.7% YoY and accounting for 78% of H1 consolidated gross profit. CEO Ricardo Ramos attributed the quarter's price gains to stronger-than-expected demand, with volumes drawn jointly from Novandino (Chile, JV with Codelco) and Covalent Lithium (Australia, JV with Wesfarmers). Novandino advanced the Salar Futuro project in July, submitting environmental and technical documentation for the roughly $3 billion, seven-year expansion of Atacama operations. SQM and Wesfarmers also confirmed an expansion of the Mt. Holland mine and concentrator, set to double SQM's attributable spodumene capacity to ~350,000 tonnes SC6% per year, with first output in 2030.
SMM View: The 59% YoY volume jump reflects the depth of last year's downturn trough; the ~22% QoQ gain is the more relevant read on current momentum. With Salar Futuro advancing, Mt. Holland's expansion confirmed, and realized prices rising sequentially across both Chile and Australia, SQM's results point to continued volume and price strength into Q3 2026.