ARM performance fell short of expectations, leading to a sharp drop in its stock price, The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also fell significantly [SMM Tin Morning Meeting Minutes]

Macro side, the well-known chip design company ARM (Arm Holdings) saw its stock price plummet by more than 15% intraday due to its full-year performance guidance missing expectations, causing investor dissatisfaction. Additionally, the company announced it would no longer report the shipment numbers of ARM-based chips, further impacting its stock price. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq-100 Technology Sector Index (NDX), which measures the performance of the technology companies in the Nasdaq-100 (NDX), closed lower by 3.11%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 7.14%. Furthermore, US Fed officials hinted at a possible rate cut in September, further solidifying market expectations for a rate cut. Supply side, the expectation of tight domestic supply is gradually being realized. The operating rate of refined tin smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces has declined, with the operating rate calculated at 64.28%. Upon deeper analysis, most smelters still maintained normal production with no short-term plans to reduce output, and some companies' maintenance plans have not yet started. However, some smelters have gradually lowered their scheduled production plans. Given the tight supply of raw materials, it is expected that the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi may not increase in the future. In summary, under the repeated impact of macro and news factors and the gradual reduction in domestic tin market supply, SHFE tin prices are likely to show a trend of fluctuating upward.