SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Aug 2)

Market: The most-traded SHFE 2409 aluminum contract opened at 19,230 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 19,330 yuan/mt and a low of 19,225 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,225 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.26%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,311/mt, reached a high of $2,327.5/mt and a low of $2,272.5/mt, and closed at $2,273.5/mt, down $41.5/mt, a decrease of 1.79%.

Summary: On the macro front, the Chinese government continues to boost the domestic economy, the expectation of a US Fed rate cut is increasing, and global liquidity is becoming more abundant. Together with the escalation of regional conflicts, these factors have led to a recent rebound in aluminium prices. However, on the fundamentals side, aluminium still shows a pattern of supply growth and weak demand, with social inventory at a high level for the same period. In the short term, the macro front and fundamentals will be intertwined with bullish and bearish factors, and aluminium prices are expected to fluctuate widely.