In July, the cold repair of glass furnaces increased rapidly again, and the supply expectation weakened significantly [SMM Analysis]

Since July, the number of domestic PV glass furnace cold repair production lines has rapidly increased, leading to a decrease in market supply. It is expected that the domestic PV glass supply-demand balance will ease, and subsequent supply pressure will diminish. According to SMM statistics, since July, there have been 12 domestic PV glass cold repair furnaces, involving a capacity of 6,400 mt/day, resulting in a monthly supply reduction of approximately 3 GW.

In July, the number of cold repair kilns increased among leading domestic producers. Xinyi and Flat Glass contributed significantly to this round of concentrated cold repairs, with the two producers accounting for more than half of the total cold repair capacity in July. However, the capacity of each single-line cold repair was not large, with most kilns having a daily melting capacity of less than 600 mt/day. Only one kiln had a daily melting capacity of 1,000 mt/day or more. The latest ignition time for this batch of kilns was 2018-2019. Based on the kiln's age, it was inferred that most kilns had reached their service life, but the current market impact was also a major factor for the concentrated cold repairs. According to SMM statistics, the current price of 2.0mm single-layer coated glass is 14-15 yuan/square meter, which has reached the full cost line for most producers' large kilns. Kilns with a daily melting capacity of 1,000 mt/day or less are already in a loss-making state, putting significant pressure on the producers.

Since 2024, SMM has recorded a total domestic cold repair capacity of 9,870 mt/day, with a total of 18 furnaces. SMM expects that the number of cold repair furnaces will continue to increase, but the plans for new ignition furnaces will be delayed. In Q3-Q4, it is expected to be a period of supply and demand adjustment for PV glass, with supply and demand tending towards balanced development.