SMM Copper Market Morning Comment (Aug 1)

LME copper opened at $9,126/mt overnight, hitting a session low of $9,120/mt at the beginning of trading. It then fluctuated upwards, reaching an intraday high of $9,267/mt. By the end of the trading session, it slightly fluctuated around $9,210/mt and finally closed at $9,240/mt, up 2.31%. Trading volume reached 20,000 lots, and open interest reached 292,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2409 copper contract opened at 74,690 yuan/mt, hitting a session low of 74,540 yuan/mt at the beginning of trading. It then moved higher, reaching an intraday high of 75,150 yuan/mt, and maintained slight fluctuations by the end of the trading session, finally closing at 74,970 yuan/mt, up 1.86%. Trading volume reached 55,000 lots, and open interest reached 180,000 lots. Macro side, the US Fed's FOMC meeting kept interest rates unchanged and adjusted the statement to align with recent rate cut expectations. Powell indicated that if the data meets requirements, a rate cut could happen as early as September. Additionally, the US July non-farm payrolls showed that the labor cost growth indicator cooled more than expected in Q2, supporting the trend of easing inflation pressures. Domestically, the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized accelerating the construction of a unified national market and making greater efforts to develop the private economy, with the market anticipating more economic stimulus policies. Fundamentals side, the spot market yesterday was heavily influenced by the end-of-month atmosphere. Recent spot market transactions were mainly concentrated on previous warrants and non-registered imported sources. With the copper price correction, the market may improve in August. Overall, with the Bank of Japan raising interest rates by 15 basis points and the US Fed opening the door for a rate cut in September, copper prices are expected to rise today.