SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 31)

Market: The most-traded SHFE aluminum 2409 contract opened at 18,840 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 19,040 yuan/mt and a low of 18,790 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,010 yuan/mt, up 60 yuan/mt, or 0.32%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,249.5/mt, hit a high of $2,253/mt and a low of $2,209.5/mt, and closed at $2,238/mt, down $9/mt, or 0.40%.

Summary: On the macro side, global market liquidity is gradually increasing, and regional conflict remain unpredictable. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum supply continues to grow, with a significant YoY increase in net imports of primary aluminum. Downstream aluminum processing and end-user demand are in the off-season, with the operating rate in the aluminum processing industry hitting a low point, and some stimulus measures have yet to show effect. Social inventory is at a three-year high for the same period, and spot discounts persist. On the cost side, some material prices are at risk of falling. In the short term, aluminum fundamentals continue to exert downward pressure on aluminum prices, while macro fluctuations are relatively large. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of macro changes on aluminum prices.