SMM Copper Market Morning Comment (Jul 31)

LME copper opened at $8,954/mt overnight, experienced wide fluctuations initially and hit a session low of $8,915/mt. It then rebounded, reaching a session high of $9,046.5/mt, and finally closed at $9,031/mt, up 0.07%. Trading volume reached 19,000 lots, and open interest reached 291,000 lots. Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2409 copper contract opened at 73,040 yuan/mt and initially fluctuated downward, hitting a session low of 72,740 yuan/mt. It then rebounded, reaching a session high of 73,580 yuan/mt, and finally closed at 73,510 yuan/mt, up 0.04%. Trading volume reached 70,000 lots, and open interest reached 181,000 lots. Macro front, several Japanese media outlets reported late at night that the Bank of Japan would raise interest rates by 15 basis points at the meeting ending today, exceeding market expectations. Meanwhile, as the market awaited, the US Fed's spokesperson indicated that a rate cut in July was almost impossible, but changes in the Fed's statement should be closely monitored, which might suggest an increased possibility of a rate cut in September. Although copper prices opened lower overnight due to overseas inventories and market uncertainties, they ultimately closed slightly higher. Fundamentals side, copper prices continued to run weak, but downstream trading sentiment did not significantly rebound for fear of falling prices. Supply side, the inflow of imported copper is expected to decrease in early August. Overall, attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision today. If it raises rates as expected, copper prices may be boosted.