SMM Copper Market Morning Comment (Jul 31)

Indian copper producers are seeking a GST cut to 5% from 18%, citing rising working-capital requirements amid record-high copper prices.

Zambia’s sulphuric acid shortage is becoming a growing constraint on copper production and refining. Jubilee Metals reported acid costs rising by more than 200% in Q4 FY2026, while Sable cathode output fell to 250 t from 361 t in Q3. Government data also showed small-scale copper production down 35.2% YoY in H1 2026, highlighting the sector’s exposure to tight acid availability and higher processing costs.

Selkirk Copper Mines has outlined a potential restart of the past-producing Minto copper-gold-silver mine in Yukon, Canada, following the completion of a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) that supports first concentrate production in the second half of 2028.​ The PEA outlines a 13-year mine life based on combined open-pit and underground mining, with operations designed around an average mining and milling rate of 4,100 mt/day. At peak production, the project is expected to produce approximately 27,200 mt/year of copper-equivalent contained in concentrate, equivalent to around 48,700 mt/year of high-grade copper-gold-silver concentrate.​ Initial capital required to re-establish production is estimated at C$186 million. Using the study's planning prices of US$5.00/lb copper, US$3,600/oz gold and US$50/oz silver, the PEA estimates an after-tax NPV at a 7% discount rate of C$494 million, an after-tax IRR of 47.8% and a payback period of approximately 1.9 years from first production.​ Minto benefits from substantial existing infrastructure from its previous operations, including a 4,100 mt/day processing plant as well as existing open-pit and underground infrastructure. Selkirk Copper said assessments of the site's existing infrastructure and equipment found that the majority remains in good working order and requires only minor attention and refurbishment.​ The company is targeting first concentrate production in H2 2028, followed by full ramp-up of mining, milling and concentrate production by H1 2029. A feasibility study is scheduled to begin in Q4 2026, while amended permit applications are also expected to be submitted during the fourth quarter. Selkirk Copper said a restart decision is targeted following completion of the feasibility study and receipt of permit amendments in H2 2027.​ The Minto PEA outlines a potential pathway for a previously producing copper operation to return to the market by 2028, supported by existing processing and mining infrastructure that could reduce the capital and construction requirements compared with a greenfield project. However, the 27,200 mt/year peak production figure represents copper-equivalent contained in concentrate rather than contained copper alone. The restart also remains subject to further feasibility work, permitting and project execution, making progress toward a restart decision in H2 2027 an important milestone to watch.