SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 30)

Market: Overnight, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2409 contract opened at 19,145 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 19,205 yuan/mt and a low of 19,090 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,140 yuan/mt, down 55 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.29%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,287/mt, reached a high of $2,299/mt, a low of $2,239.5/mt, and closed at $2,247/mt, down $34/mt, a decrease of 1.49%.

Summary: On the macro side, global market liquidity is gradually increasing, and the outlook for regional conflicts remains uncertain. On the fundamentals side, domestic aluminum supply continues to grow, with a significant YoY increase in net imports of primary aluminum. Downstream aluminum processing and end-user demand have entered the off-season, with the operating rate in the aluminum processing industry hitting a low point, and the effects of some stimulus measures have yet to materialize. Social inventory is at a three-year high for the same period, and spot discounts persist. On the cost side, alumina prices face a risk of decline. In the short term, aluminum fundamentals continue to exert downward pressure on aluminum prices, while macro fluctuations are relatively significant. In the short term, it is crucial to focus on the impact of macro changes on aluminum prices.