SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 25)

Market: The most-traded SHFE 2409 aluminum contract opened at 19,350 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 19,360 yuan/mt and a low of 19,255 yuan/mt, and closed at 19,270 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.26%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,296/mt, reached a high of $2,320.5/mt and a low of $2,286/mt, and closed at $2,295/mt, down $2.5/mt, a decrease of 0.15%.

Summary: On the macro front, China lowered deposit rates, and Canada's rate cut was in line with expectations, leading to increasing market liquidity. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminium supply continues to grow, with a significant YoY increase in net imports of primary aluminium. However, downstream aluminum processing and end-user demand have entered the off-season, with the operating rate in the aluminum processing industry hitting a low point, and the effects of some stimulus measures have yet to materialize. Social inventory remains at a three-year high for the same period, and spot discounts persist. In the short term, aluminum fundamentals are relatively stable, continuing to exert downward pressure on aluminum prices, while macro fluctuations are relatively large. In the short term, attention should be focused on the impact of macro changes on aluminum prices.