SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 15)

On last Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2408 contract opened at 20,055 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,095 yuan/mt and a low of 19,925 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,085 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.07%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,481/mt, reached a high of $2,489.5/mt, a low of $2,465/mt, and closed at $2,489.5/mt, up $13/mt, an increase of 0.52%.

Summary: On the macro front, although market expectations for a US Fed rate cut are increasing and the upcoming 20th Third Plenary Session in China may bring new positive news, the sudden attack on Trump over the weekend and the complex situation of the Israel-Palestine conflict have added uncertainty to the market. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminum production is increasing, with some capacity still awaiting resumption. Downstream aluminum processing and end-user demand have entered the off-season, with demand in some sectors being hit, leading to a continuous decline in the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry. Social inventory continues to accumulate and is at a high level compared to the same period in the past three years, and spot discounts may persist in the short term. The aluminum market lacks upward driving factors. Due to the impact of the Indonesian ore export event, SMM expects aluminum prices to remain weak in the short term, with attention needed on macro changes affecting aluminum prices.