SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 12)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2408 aluminum contract opened at 20,250 yuan/mt, with a high of 20,300 yuan/mt, a low of 20,130 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,160 yuan/mt, down 45 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.22%. The previous trading day, LME aluminum opened at $2,480/mt, with a high of $2,508.5/mt, a low of $2,474/mt, and closed at $2,474.5/mt, down $3.5/mt from the previous closing price, a decrease of 0.14%.

Summary: On the macro front, market expectations for a US Fed rate cut are continuously strengthening, and the upcoming 20th Third Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee in China may bring positive news. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminium supply is increasing, with some capacity still awaiting resumption. Downstream aluminum processing and end-user demand have entered the off-season, with demand in some sectors being hit, leading to a continuous decline in the operating rate of the aluminum processing industry and inventory accumulation in society. The aluminum market currently lacks driving factors, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of macro changes on aluminum prices.