According to SMM statistics, as of June 19, the inventory of primary aluminum ingots at major domestic consumption hubs stood at 449,000 mt, down 9,000 mt from Monday this week and 11,000 mt WoW from Thursday last week. On a YoY basis, it was down 307,000 mt compared to the same period last year and 69,000 mt compared to the same period in 2023, remaining at a low level compared to the same period over the past three years. It was also just a stone's throw away from the year's low inventory level of 440,000 mt, with low inventory continuing to provide strong support for aluminum prices...

[SMM Midday Review of Spot Aluminum: Futures Market Fluctuates Considerably, Prices Decline, Market Transactions Improve] Inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 449,000 mt on June 19, experiencing a destocking of 0.9 mt compared to the previous trading day. In the short term, the relatively low arrival of aluminum ingots and the reduction in aluminum ingot inventory are conducive to high spot premiums in the spot market. However, there is a strong fear of high prices in the spot market, with downstream purchase willingness being poor. Transactions are concluded at discounts, and it is expected that the short-term spot premiums will show a narrowing trend.

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,668/mt, hitting a high of $9,694.5/mt at the beginning of the session before fluctuating downward throughout the session, touching a low of $9,648/mt near the close, and eventually closing at $9,650.5/mt, down 0.2%.

[SMM Morning Comment on Cast Aluminum Alloy: Inventory of Secondary Aluminum Ingots in Three Regions Rises to 17,500 mt, Off-Season Inventory Buildup Pressures ADC12 Prices] Driven by the strong upward trend in aluminum prices, the prices of secondary aluminum raw materials increased actively on Wednesday, but the increase was weaker than that of primary aluminum, with an overall increase in the range of 100-200 yuan/mt. Although the continuous rise in cost side provided upward momentum for ADC12 prices, the actual increase was limited, with the market generally raising prices by 100 yuan/mt. Yesterday, SMM ADC12 prices increased by 100 yuan/mt to the range of 20,000-20,300 yuan/mt.

[SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary: Low Inventory Support vs. Off-Season Demand - Aluminum Prices Fluctuate at Highs Amidst US Fed's Stance] On the macro side, the US Fed maintained interest rates as expected. Fed Chairman Powell stated at a press conference that price increases triggered by tariffs would become more pronounced in the coming months, and the Fed needed to be confident that inflation was declining before initiating an interest rate cut. On the fundamentals side, domestic operating capacity of primary aluminum remained stable, with reduced casting ingot volumes contributing to a sustained destocking state of domestic aluminum ingot inventory. On the cost side, prices of alumina and auxiliary materials are expected to weaken, leading to diminished cost support for primary aluminum. On the demand side, there is dual pressure from seasonal weakness domestically and trade uncertainties, with the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises expected to decline under pressure in the short term. Overall, the current low inventory and expectations of a rising proportion of liquid aluminum provide strong support for aluminum prices. However, the pressure from the off-season on the demand side limits upside room. Spot aluminum ingots in major consumption areas may soon face a situation of weak supply and demand, with aluminum prices primarily fluctuating at highs in the short term.

[ADC12 Price Daily Review: Strong Aluminum Prices Push Up Cost Side; Short-Term Prices Unlikely to Break Through Amid Supply-Demand Mismatch of ADC12] In the spot market, today's SMM A00 aluminum price surged by 280 yuan/mt from the previous trading day to 20,900 yuan/mt, while the domestic SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price increased by 100 yuan/mt to the range of 20,000-20,300 yuan/mt.

On June 6, 2025, Allison Ju, Senior Manager of SMM's Aluminum Overseas Sales Team, and Cathy Liu, SMM's Aluminum Analyst, led a delegation to PT Well Harvest Winning Alumina Refinery (hereinafter referred to as "WHW"), where they held in-depth discussions with WHW's management at its Jakarta office.

[SMM Midday Review of Spot Aluminum: Futures Market Rises Sharply, Downstream Actual Demand Weakens] Inventory side, according to SMM's domestic aluminum ingot inventory data from three locations, domestic aluminum ingot inventory stood at 325,500 mt on June 18, with a destocking of 0.6 mt compared to the previous trading day. In the short term, the low arrival of aluminum ingots and the reduction in inventory are conducive to high spot premiums in the spot market. However, there is a strong fear of high prices in the spot market, with weak purchase willingness from downstream players. Transactions are being made at discounts, and it is expected that spot premiums will show a narrowing trend in the short term.