SMM analysis on China June primary lead production and July forecast

Published: Jul 11, 2024 09:37
Source: SMM
In June 2024, the national primary lead production was 282,700 mt, down 2.12% MoM and 3.54% YoY. In H1 2024, the cumulative primary lead production was down 4.65% YoY. The total production capacity of the surveyed enterprises in 2024 was 6.0063 million mt.

In June 2024, the national primary lead production was 282,700 mt, down 2.12% MoM and 3.54% YoY. In H1 2024, the cumulative primary lead production was down 4.65% YoY. The total production capacity of the surveyed enterprises in 2024 was 6.0063 million mt.

According to the survey, the maintenance of primary lead smelters increased in June, and the production continued to decline. In June, several primary lead delivery brand enterprises started maintenance from early June to the end of the month, especially in mid-to-late June, with concentrated maintenance in smelters in Henan, Anhui, and Inner Mongolia, mostly large enterprises with significant reductions. Therefore, even after the resumption of production in smelters in Yunnan, Hunan, and other regions, the primary lead production in June still recorded a slight decrease.

Entering July, the SHFE/LME price ratio expanded as the former outperformed the latter, so lead concentrate imports increased, and imported crude lead also flowed into the domestic market, easing the tight domestic raw material supply to some extent. According to the SMM survey, as of July 5, the total lead concentrate inventory at Lianyungang and Fangchenggang ports was 32,000 mt, an increase of 13,000 mt compared to the end of June. Meanwhile, the maintenance of primary lead smelters gradually ended, with smelters in Henan, Anhui, Hunan, Liaoning, and other regions resuming production, contributing significantly to the production increase in July. SMM expects primary lead production in July to increase by nearly 20,000 mt compared to June, reaching 300,000 mt.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Lead Prices Stagnant, Smelters Maintain Firm Offers Amid Losses
21 hours ago
Lead Prices Stagnant, Smelters Maintain Firm Offers Amid Losses
Read More
Lead Prices Stagnant, Smelters Maintain Firm Offers Amid Losses
Lead Prices Stagnant, Smelters Maintain Firm Offers Amid Losses
Lead prices were in the doldrums, while secondary lead smelters maintained firm offers due to losses. The mainstream spot order ex-factory prices including tax narrowed the discount to the SMM #1 lead average price by 100 yuan/mt, shifting to a premium of 0–25 yuan/mt, with some smelters halting offers and sales.
21 hours ago
"Domestic Secondary Crude Lead Market Slows as Holidays Approach, Smelters Halt Production"
21 hours ago
"Domestic Secondary Crude Lead Market Slows as Holidays Approach, Smelters Halt Production"
Read More
"Domestic Secondary Crude Lead Market Slows as Holidays Approach, Smelters Halt Production"
"Domestic Secondary Crude Lead Market Slows as Holidays Approach, Smelters Halt Production"
Pre-holiday stockpiling by downstream enterprises had largely concluded, and a few had already entered the holiday period, completely suspending procurement. Next week, secondary lead smelters will enter a concentrated wave of production halts and holidays, resulting in sluggish trading activity in the spot market. Offers for spot refined lead orders were sparse, with prices moving in line with the market.
21 hours ago
Sluggish Transactions in Domestic Secondary Crude Lead Market, Prices at 15,250-15,400 Yuan/mt
21 hours ago
Sluggish Transactions in Domestic Secondary Crude Lead Market, Prices at 15,250-15,400 Yuan/mt
Read More
Sluggish Transactions in Domestic Secondary Crude Lead Market, Prices at 15,250-15,400 Yuan/mt
Sluggish Transactions in Domestic Secondary Crude Lead Market, Prices at 15,250-15,400 Yuan/mt
The domestic secondary crude lead market experienced sluggish transactions. As of February 6, 2026, the ex-factory tax-exclusive offers for domestic secondary crude lead stood at 15,250-15,400 yuan/mt. Downstream refined lead and alloy smelters gradually entered the holiday period, showing weak stockpiling willingness. Overseas lead ingot suppliers basically halted transactions with China due to poor consumption in the Chinese market, with only some previously concluded shipments maintaining normal in-transit transportation. The trading atmosphere in the secondary crude lead market will continue to weaken next week.
21 hours ago