SMM analysis on China June refined zinc output and July forecast

According to SMM, in June, China's refined zinc production was 545,800 mt, up 9,700 mt or 1.81% MoM but down 1.2% YoY. H1 output totalled 3.182 million mt, down 1.39% YoY, higher than expected. In June, domestic zinc alloy production was 93,000 mt, down 1,800 mt MoM.

In June, the production of domestic smelters exceeded expectations, mainly due to higher-than-expected production in Guangxi, Gansu, and Guizhou. Additionally, some smelters in Shaanxi, Gansu, Yunnan, and Guizhou resumed production after maintenance, while some smelters in Hunan and other regions experienced production reductions due to shutdowns for maintenance. Overall, the production increased.

SMM expects that in July, domestic refined zinc production will decrease by 38,900 mt MoM to 507,000 mt, down 8% YoY. The production in January-July is expected to be 3.689 million mt, down 2.35% YoY. The main reason for the production decline in July is the reduction in output from smelters in Henan, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Gansu, Qinghai, and Yunnan due to raw material shortages and routine maintenance, although some smelters in Hunan and Yunnan resumed operations after previous maintenance. Overall, the production decline will be significant.