SMM analysis on June overseas aluminium output and July forecast

According to SMM, the total overseas aluminium output in June (30 days) was 2.452 million mt, up 1% YoY. H1 output totalled 14.874 million mt, up 1.6% YoY. The average overseas capacity utilization rate was 87.3%, flat MoM, and slightly up 1.1% YoY.

By region:

North America: The total output in June was 323,000 mt. The shutdown of New Madrid at the beginning of this year caused the aluminium output in North America to decrease by 3% YoY. The current average capacity utilization rate in North America is 84.3%.

South America: The total output in June was 134,000 mt, up 6.3% YoY. The increase came from the resumption of two smelters, namely Alumar (60% owned by Alcoa and 40% by South 32) and Aluminio of Brazilian local aluminium producer Companhia Brasileira de Aluminio (CBA). The Alumar smelter's capacity utilization rate recovered to about 70% in June, with the output of about 27,000 mt. CBA stated that the demand in the Brazilian market had improved compared to the same period last year and planned to restart two idled production lines in 2023-2024, with an expected capacity increase of 80,000 mt. In June, CBA's aluminium output was about 30,000 mt, with a capacity utilization rate of about 80%, up 5.4% YoY.

Russia: The total output in June was about 340,000 mt, up 3.1% YoY. The increase came from the Taishet smelter. This smelter announced its resumption at the beginning of 2022, but the progress has been slow. SMM estimates that the total output of this smelter in June was about 18,500 mt, with the capacity utilization rate recovering to about 54%.

Europe (excluding Russia): The total output in June was about 277,000 mt, down 0.6% YoY, with a capacity utilization rate of 69.4%

Africa: The total output in June was about 135,000 mt, up 2.6% YoY, with a capacity utilization rate of about 84.9%. The power outage impact on the Mozal smelter under South 32 in 2024 Q1 faded, and it has resumed normal production. The increase came from Egyptalum's Nag Hammadi smelter. Egyptalum is the largest aluminium producer in Egypt, and its smelters keep operations stable, with continuous growth in output. The current annual capacity of Nag Hammadi smelter is 320,000 mt, with a capacity utilization rate of about 78%.

Oceania: The total output in June was about 155,000 mt, slightly up 1.4% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate of about 90%.

Middle East: The market demand performed well. The total output in June was about 580,000 mt, slightly down 0.2% YoY, with an average capacity utilization rate of 102.2%.

India: The total output in June was about 338,000 mt, up 1.6% YoY. The average capacity utilization rate was 100.3%.

Other regions in Asia excluding China, India, and the Middle East: The total output in June was 171,600 mt, up 4.8% YoY. The growth mainly came from Indonesia. The Huaqing Aluminium smelter in Indonesia started operations in 2023, with a capacity of 500,000 mt in 2024. SMM estimates that the output of this smelter in June was about 22,000 mt, with a capacity utilization rate of about 56%.

July forecast: According to SMM, the overseas aluminium output in July (31 days) is expected to be about 2.54 million mt, up about 0.6% YoY. The average capacity utilization rate of overseas aluminium smelters is expected to be about 87.5%, up 0.2% MoM and 0.8% YoY.