SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (Jul 9)

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE 2408 aluminum contract opened at 20,370 yuan/mt, reaching a high of 20,460 yuan/mt and a low of 20,350 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,365 yuan/mt, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous trading day, an increase of 0.10%. LME aluminum opened at $2,537/mt in the previous trading day, with a high of $2,541/mt and a low of $2,520/mt, and closed at $2,529/mt, down $10.5/mt from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.41%.

Macro side, the market expectations of a US Fed rate cut were further strengthened. Fundamentals side, domestic aluminum supply is increasing, with some capacity yet to be resumed. Downstream aluminum processing and end-user demand have entered the off-season, with operating rates declining. Therefore, social inventory increased. The aluminum market fundamentals lack driving factors, and short-term aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate. However, close attention should be paid to macro sentiment changes that may cause aluminum price volatility.