SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 2)

The most-traded SHFE 2408 aluminum contract opened at 20,355 yuan/mt overnight, reaching a high of 20,400 yuan/mt and a low of 20,300 yuan/mt, and closed at 20,315 yuan/mt, down 5 yuan/mt, a decrease of 0.02%. LME aluminum opened at $2,510/mt in the previous trading day, with a high of $2,547.5/mt and a low of $2,510/mt, and closed at $2,517.5/mt, flat compared to the previous trading day's closing price.

Summary: On the macro front, the US dollar slightly declined overnight. The US manufacturing index for June fell to 48.5, lower than the expected 49.1, and the US construction spending for May also came in below expectations. This week's focus will be on Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Tuesday, the release of the Fed's June monetary policy meeting minutes on Wednesday, and the US non-farm payrolls data on Friday. On the fundamentals, domestic aluminum supply continues to grow, while the arrival of the off-season for consumption weakened the operating rate of downstream aluminum producers. In July, domestic aluminum ingot destocking has not proceeded smoothly. In the short term, aluminum prices are expected to be weak due to fundamental, but close attention should be paid to any macroeconomic events that could disrupt market sentiment.