SMM Aluminum Market Morning Comment (July 1)

Market: The most-traded alumina contract 2408 opened at 3,835 yuan/mt in the night session, reaching a high of 3,844 yuan/mt and a low of 3,798 yuan/mt, and closed at 3,819 yuan/mt, up 24 yuan/mt, an increase of 0.63%. Open interest was 53,500 lots, down 545 lots.

Summary: Recently, domestic spot prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, with a strong wait-and-see sentiment among downstream buyers. Meanwhile, sellers remain reluctant to sell, keeping their offers firm. Currently, alumina saw both production increases and cuts, while on the demand, the third phase of the Huayun aluminium project in Inner Mongolia is steadily advancing. SMM believes that the tight balance in the alumina market will persist. In the short term, spot prices are expected to fluctuate, but in the medium and long-term, there is still an expectation of new domestic alumina capacity. However, the supply of bauxite, the raw material, may not see a significant increase in the short term. Continued attention is needed on the supply of bauxite both domestically and internationally.